diff --git a/src/ert/analysis/_es_update.py b/src/ert/analysis/_es_update.py
index c41c623d476..c36e1796f7f 100644
--- a/src/ert/analysis/_es_update.py
+++ b/src/ert/analysis/_es_update.py
@@ -689,7 +689,7 @@ def adaptive_localization_progress_callback(
                 cov_shrinkage=True,
                 symmetrization=False,
                 shrinkage_target=2,
-                inflation_factor=12.0,
+                inflation_factor=15.0,
             )
 
             # # A very simple hash key for graph