We are aggregating forecasts of new cases and deaths due to Covid-19 over the next four weeks in countries across Europe and the UK.
- View the current forecasts
- We publish a weekly evaluation of current forecasts
- Raw forecast files are in the data-processed folder
This is a brief outline for anyone considering contributing a forecast. For a detailed guide on how to structure and submit a forecast, please read the technical wiki.
Before contributing for the first time: - Read the guide for preparing to submit - Create a team directory - Add your metadata and a license
We require some forecast parameters so that we can compare and ensemble forecasts. All forecasts should use the following structure:
| Parameter | Description |
|---|---|
| Target | Cases, hospitalisations and/or deaths |
| Count | Incident |
| Geography | EU/EFTA/UK nations (any/all) |
| Frequency | Weekly |
| Horizon | 1 to 4 weeks |
There is no obligation to submit forecasts for all suggested targets or horizons, and it is up to you to decide which you are comfortable forecasting with your model.
We have written more about forecast targets, horizons, and locations in the guide.
We use Epidemiological Weeks (EW) defined by the US CDC. Each week starts on Sunday and ends on Saturday. We provide more details here, and templates to convert dates to EW weeks (and vice versa).
We base evaluations on country level data from Johns Hopkins University.
Forecasts should be submitted on Monday by opening a pull request in this repository. So that we can evaluate and ensemble forecasts, we ask for a specific file structure and naming format: our wiki contains a detailed guide. If you have technical difficulties with submission, try troubleshooting or get in touch by raising an issue.
After teams have submitted their forecasts, we create an ensemble forecast. Note that the ensemble only includes the forecasts that completely match the standard format (for example those with all the specified quantiles). See the inclusion criteria for more details.
We also publish some weekly evaluation across forecasting models.
This effort parallels forecasting hubs in the US and Germany. We follow a similar structure and data format, and re-use software provided by the ReichLab.
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The US COVID-19 Forecast Hub is run by the UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence based at the Reich Lab.
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The German and Polish COVID-19 Forecast Hub is run by members of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) and the Computational Statistics Group at Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies.
This repository was created by Epiforecasts, supported by grant funding from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC). It was based on and supported by members of the US, and German and Polish Forecast Hubs and is now maintained by the ECDC.
Direct contributors to this repository include (in alphabetical order):
- Daniel Wolffram
- Hugo Gruson
- Jannik Deuschel
- Johannes Bracher
- Katharine Sherratt
- Nikos Bosse
- Sebastian Funk
The interactive visualization tool (code available here) has been developed by the Signale Team at Robert Koch Institute:
- Fabian Eckelmann - Knut Perseke - Alexander Ullrich
- The forecasts assembled in this repository have been created by
independent teams. Most provide a license in their respective
subfolder of
data-processed. - Parts of the processing, analysis and validation code have been taken or adapted from the US Covid-19 forecast hub and the Germany/Poland Covid-19 forecast hub both under an MIT license.
- All code contained in this repository is under the MIT license. Please get in touch with us to re-use materials from this repository.
To cite the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub in project in publications, please use the following references:
Methodology and evaluation:
Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandman, F., … & Funk, S. (2022). Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations. medRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024
Data:
Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandman, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, … Sebastian Funk. (2023). European Covid-19 Forecast Hub (v2023.05.25) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7970457
Bibtex
@dataset{katharine_sherratt_2023_7970457,
author = {Katharine Sherratt and
Hugo Gruson and
Helen Johnson and
Rene Niehus and
Bastian Prasse and
Frank Sandman and
Jannik Deuschel and
Daniel Wolffram and
Sam Abbott and
Alexander Ullrich and
Graham Gibson and
Evan L Ray and
Nicholas G Reich and
Daniel Sheldon and
Yijin Wang and
Nutcha Wattanachit and
Lijing Wang and
Jan Trnka and
Guillaume Obozinski and
Tao Sun and
Dorina Thanou and
Loic Pottier and
Ekaterina Krymova and
Maria Vittoria Barbarossa and
Neele Leithauser and
Jan Mohring and
Johanna Schneider and
Jaroslaw Wlazlo and
Jan Fuhrmann and
Berit Lange and
Isti Rodiah and
Prasith Baccam and
Heidi Gurung and
Steven Stage and
Bradley Suchoski and
Jozef Budzinski and
Robert Walraven and
Inmaculada Villanueva and
Vit Tucek and
Martin Smid and
Milan Zajicek and
Cesar Perez Alvarez and
Borja Reina and
Nikos I Bosse and
Sophie Meakin and
Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro and
Antonello Maruotti and
Veronika Eclerova and
Andrea Kraus and
David Kraus and
Lenka Pribylova and
Bertsimas Dimitris and
Michael Lingzhi Li and
Soni Saksham and
Jonas Dehning and
Sebastian Mohr and
Viola Priesemann and
Grzegorz Redlarski and
Benjamin Bejar and
Giovanni Ardenghi and
Nicola Parolini and
Giovanni Ziarelli and
Wolfgang Bock and
Stefan Heyder and
Thomas Hotz and
David E Singh and
Miguel Guzman-Merino and
Jose L Aznarte and
David Morina and
Sergio Alonso and
Enric Alvarez and
Daniel Lopez and
Clara Prats and
Jan Pablo Burgard and
Arne Rodloff and
Tom Zimmermann and
Alexander Kuhlmann and
Janez Zibert and
Fulvia Pennoni and
Fabio Divino and
Marti Catala and
Gianfranco Lovison and
Paolo Giudici and
Barbara Tarantino and
Francesco Bartolucci and
Giovanna Jona Lasinio and
Marco Mingione and
Alessio Farcomeni and
Ajitesh Srivastava and
Pablo Montero-Manso and
Aniruddha Adiga and
Benjamin Hurt and
Bryan Lewis and
Madhav Marathe and
Przemyslaw Porebski and
Srinivasan Venkatramanan and
Rafal Bartczuk and
Filip Dreger and
Anna Gambin and
Krzysztof Gogolewski and
Magdalena Gruziel-Slomka and
Bartosz Krupa and
Antoni Moszynski and
Karol Niedzielewski and
Jedrzej Nowosielski and
Maciej Radwan and
Franciszek Rakowski and
Marcin Semeniuk and
Ewa Szczurek and
Jakub Zielinski and
Jan Kisielewski and
Barbara Pabjan and
Kirsten Holger and
Yuri Kheifetz and
Markus Scholz and
Marcin Bodych and
Maciej Filinski and
Radoslaw Idzikowski and
Tyll Krueger and
Tomasz Ozanski and
Johannes Bracher and
Sebastian Funk},
title = {European Covid-19 Forecast Hub},
month = may,
year = 2023,
publisher = {Zenodo},
version = {v2023.05.25},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.7970457},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7970457}
}