error.log

{"Question": "Between 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?", "Started_time": "2022-04-29", "Closed_time": "2022-12-01", "Challenges_list": ["Range: A GJ Open Forecasting Challenge", "In the News 2022"], "Tags_list": ["Technology", "Foreign Policy", "Security and Conflict"], "Description": "After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "2.38%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "97.62%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 575, "instruction": "", "input": "After launching an ICBM for the first time since 2017, there are concerns that North Korea may test another nuclear weapon (AP, CNN). North Korea's most recent nuclear detonation was in 2017 (BBC).\nBetween 29 April 2022 and 30 November 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "What percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?", "Started_time": "2022-04-29", "Closed_time": "2022-09-04", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2022"], "Tags_list": ["Elections and Referenda", "Non-US Politics"], "Description": "In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close \"Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022\" upon the announcement of that postponement.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than 40.0%": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "14%"}, "Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "77%"}, "More than 50.0% but less than 60%": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "3%"}, "60.0% or more": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "6%"}}, "choices": ["Less than 40.0%", "Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive", "More than 50.0% but less than 60%", "60.0% or more", "Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022"], "target": "Less than 40.0%", "unique_idx": 686, "instruction": "", "input": "In the wake of widespread protests in 2019, Chile began a process to draft and approve a new constitution to replace the current, Pinochet-era constitution (US News & World Report, Buenos Aires Times, Euronews). The referendum is currently scheduled for 4 September 2022 (France 24). If the Chilean government reschedules the referendum to a date before 1 January 2023, the suspend date will be changed to accommodate the new date. If the Chilean government postpones the referendum to a date after 31 December 2022, the question would close \"Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022\" upon the announcement of that postponement.\nWhat percentage of the 2022 Chilean referendum vote will be to approve the new constitution?\nA. Less than 40.0%\nB. Between 40.0% and 50.0%, inclusive\nC. More than 50.0% but less than 60%\nD. 60.0% or more\nE. Chile will not hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution in 2022\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Between 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?", "Started_time": "2022-03-04", "Closed_time": "2022-08-05", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2022", "Russia-Ukraine Conflict"], "Tags_list": ["Society", "Security and Conflict", "Non-US Politics"], "Description": "Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 710, "instruction": "", "input": "Russia has seen widespread protests in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify, though not necessarily at the same time. If there is clear and credible evidence that the death of a detained protester is due to an injury incurred during a protest, only then would the death of such a prisoner count.\nBetween 4 February 2022 and 4 August 2022, will anti-government protests in Russia result in ten or more fatalities?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?", "Started_time": "2021-02-24", "Closed_time": "2021-06-30", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2021", "Think Again with Adam Grant"], "Tags_list": ["Business", "Society", "Entertainment"], "Description": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 (Adamgrant.net). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (NY Times).", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Fewer than 4": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 4 and 8": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 9 and 13": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "59%"}, "Between 14 and 18": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "41%"}, "More than 18": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Fewer than 4", "Between 4 and 8", "Between 9 and 13", "Between 14 and 18", "More than 18"], "target": "Between 14 and 18", "unique_idx": 1039, "instruction": "", "input": "Author Adam Grant's latest book, \"Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,\" was released on 2 February 2021 (Adamgrant.net). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list (NY Times).\nFor how many weeks will Adam Grant's \"Think Again\" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?\nA. Fewer than 4\nB. Between 4 and 8\nC. Between 9 and 13\nD. Between 14 and 18\nE. More than 18\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "How many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?", "Started_time": "2020-07-02", "Closed_time": "2020-08-31", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2020", "Coronavirus Outbreak"], "Tags_list": ["Health"], "Description": "The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"24 or fewer": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100%"}, "Between 25 and 30": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 31 and 36": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 37 and 42": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "43 or more": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["24 or fewer", "Between 25 and 30", "Between 31 and 36", "Between 37 and 42", "43 or more"], "target": "24 or fewer", "unique_idx": 1329, "instruction": "", "input": "The Rt is \"the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person\" (Rt.live). The outcome will be determined by the latest Rt COVID-19 data for states with an Rt estimate of 1.0 or greater as of 31 August 2020 at https://rt.live. As of 2 July 2020, 38 states were at or above a 1.0 estimate. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.\nHow many U.S. states will have a 1.0 or greater effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 as of 31 August 2020?\nA. 24 or fewer\nB. Between 25 and 30\nC. Between 31 and 36\nD. Between 37 and 42\nE. 43 or more\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "How many seats in the Congress of Deputies will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) win in the next Spanish general election?", "Started_time": "2019-09-27", "Closed_time": "2019-11-10", "Challenges_list": ["In The News 2019"], "Tags_list": ["Elections and Referenda"], "Description": "The next Spanish general election is scheduled for 10 November 2019 and all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are to be contested (Economist, The Guardian, El Pais [in Spanish]). PSOE won 123 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the April 2019 general election but was not able to form a government, leading to the November 2019 elections (El Pais, Euronews, El Pais).", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than 108": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "1%"}, "Between 108 and 120, inclusive": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "45%"}, "More than 120 but less than 132": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "53%"}, "Between 132 and 144, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "1%"}, "More than 144": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Less than 108", "Between 108 and 120, inclusive", "More than 120 but less than 132", "Between 132 and 144, inclusive", "More than 144"], "target": "Between 108 and 120, inclusive", "unique_idx": 1707, "instruction": "", "input": "The next Spanish general election is scheduled for 10 November 2019 and all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies are to be contested (Economist, The Guardian, El Pais [in Spanish]). PSOE won 123 seats in the Congress of Deputies in the April 2019 general election but was not able to form a government, leading to the November 2019 elections (El Pais, Euronews, El Pais).\nHow many seats in the Congress of Deputies will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) win in the next Spanish general election?\nA. Less than 108\nB. Between 108 and 120, inclusive\nC. More than 120 but less than 132\nD. Between 132 and 144, inclusive\nE. More than 144\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "sensitive_words_detected", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "What will be the price of bitcoin on 20 August 2022?", "Started_time": "2022-05-20", "Closed_time": "2022-08-20", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2022"], "Tags_list": ["Business", "Finance", "Technology"], "Description": "The outcome will be determined using the last price dated for 20 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, chart set to \"1M\" and the \"chart switch\" toggle left at the default \"Close,\" not \"OHLC\").", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than 14,000.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "44%"}, "More than 22,000.00 but less than 30,000.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "56%"}, "Between 30,000.00 and 38,000.00, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than 38,000.00 but less than 46,000.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 46,000.00 and 54,000.00, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than 54,000.00 but less than 62,000.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "62,000.00 or more": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Less than 14,000.00", "Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive", "More than 22,000.00 but less than 30,000.00", "Between 30,000.00 and 38,000.00, inclusive", "More than 38,000.00 but less than 46,000.00", "Between 46,000.00 and 54,000.00, inclusive", "More than 54,000.00 but less than 62,000.00", "62,000.00 or more"], "target": "Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive", "unique_idx": 702, "instruction": "", "input": "The outcome will be determined using the last price dated for 20 August 2022 (PT) as reported by CoinDesk (CoinDesk, chart set to \"1M\" and the \"chart switch\" toggle left at the default \"Close,\" not \"OHLC\").\nWhat will be the price of bitcoin on 20 August 2022?\nA. Less than 14,000.00\nB. Between 14,000.00 and 22,000.00, inclusive\nC. More than 22,000.00 but less than 30,000.00\nD. Between 30,000.00 and 38,000.00, inclusive\nE. More than 38,000.00 but less than 46,000.00\nF. Between 46,000.00 and 54,000.00, inclusive\nG. More than 54,000.00 but less than 62,000.00\nH. 62,000.00 or more\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**B**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?", "Started_time": "2020-03-13", "Closed_time": "2021-01-01", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2020"], "Tags_list": ["Health", "Security and Conflict"], "Description": "The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 1174, "instruction": "", "input": "The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.\nWill the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**A**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Before 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court hear oral arguments in a case related to any state\u2019s 2020 presidential election results?", "Started_time": "2020-11-06", "Closed_time": "2020-12-14", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2020", "US Election 2020"], "Tags_list": ["US Politics", "Elections and Referenda"], "Description": "Following this year\u2019s presidential election, the Trump campaign has filed suit over the treatment of mail-in ballots for several states (AP, The Hill). Presidential electors are scheduled to meet and vote in their respective states on 14 December 2020 (Congressional Research Service).", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 1216, "instruction": "", "input": "Following this year\u2019s presidential election, the Trump campaign has filed suit over the treatment of mail-in ballots for several states (AP, The Hill). Presidential electors are scheduled to meet and vote in their respective states on 14 December 2020 (Congressional Research Service).\nBefore 14 December 2020, will the U.S. Supreme Court hear oral arguments in a case related to any state\u2019s 2020 presidential election results?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**B**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "What will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 22 September 2020, according to Bloomberg?", "Started_time": "2020-08-28", "Closed_time": "2020-09-22", "Challenges_list": ["In the News 2020"], "Tags_list": ["Business", "Economic Indicators"], "Description": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than $25.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "1%"}, "More than $35.00 but less than $45.00": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "99%"}, "Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than $55.00": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Less than $25.00", "Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive", "More than $35.00 but less than $45.00", "Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive", "More than $55.00"], "target": "More than $35.00 but less than $45.00", "unique_idx": 1313, "instruction": "", "input": "The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).\nWhat will be the closing price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on 22 September 2020, according to Bloomberg?\nA. Less than $25.00\nB. Between $25.00 and $35.00, inclusive\nC. More than $35.00 but less than $45.00\nD. Between $45.00 and $55.00, inclusive\nE. More than $55.00\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**C**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "As of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana, as reported by COVID Tracker?", "Started_time": "2020-04-23", "Closed_time": "2020-05-09", "Challenges_list": ["Coronavirus Outbreak"], "Tags_list": ["Health"], "Description": "The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Louisiana deaths totaled 1,296.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than 2,000": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100%"}, "More than 2,750 but less than 3,500": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than 4,250": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Less than 2,000", "Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive", "More than 2,750 but less than 3,500", "Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive", "More than 4,250"], "target": "Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive", "unique_idx": 1441, "instruction": "", "input": "The question will be suspended on 8 May 2020. The outcome will be determined using data as provided by The COVID Tracking Project for 9 May 2020 as provided on 11 May 2020 after 5:00PM ET (The COVID Tracking Project). As of 19 April 2020, reported Louisiana deaths totaled 1,296.\nAs of 9 May 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana, as reported by COVID Tracker?\nA. Less than 2,000\nB. Between 2,000 and 2,750, inclusive\nC. More than 2,750 but less than 3,500\nD. Between 3,500 and 4,250, inclusive\nE. More than 4,250\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**A**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?", "Started_time": "2017-03-31", "Closed_time": "2017-07-01", "Challenges_list": ["Early Warning Project (2017-2018)"], "Tags_list": ["Security and Conflict"], "Description": "The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "10.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "90.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 1696, "instruction": "", "input": "The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and will be resolved in April 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in the Central African Republic from April 2017 to March 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilians fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See (Early Warning Project) for examples. See (GJ Open) for GJ\u2019s FAQ on forecasting questions like this.\nBetween 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2018, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**A**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Which film will win the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture?", "Started_time": "2019-02-08", "Closed_time": "2019-02-24", "Challenges_list": ["In The News 2019"], "Tags_list": ["Society", "Entertainment"], "Description": "The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per\u00a0Box Office Mojo.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Black Panther": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "BlacKkKlansman": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Bohemian Rhapsody": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "The Favourite": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "7%"}, "Green Book": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Roma": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "93%"}, "A Star Is Born": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Vice": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Black Panther", "BlacKkKlansman", "Bohemian Rhapsody", "The Favourite", "Green Book", "Roma", "A Star Is Born", "Vice"], "target": "Green Book", "unique_idx": 1830, "instruction": "", "input": "The 91st Academy Awards are scheduled to take place Sunday 24 February 2019 (Oscars 2019). In the event of a tie, the question will close based on the film with the higher box office gross per\u00a0Box Office Mojo.\nWhich film will win the 2019 Academy Award for Best Picture?\nA. Black Panther\nB. BlacKkKlansman\nC. Bohemian Rhapsody\nD. The Favourite\nE. Green Book\nF. Roma\nG. A Star Is Born\nH. Vice\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**G**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality?", "Started_time": "2017-11-14", "Closed_time": "2018-10-01", "Challenges_list": ["North Korea and Global Security"], "Tags_list": [], "Description": null, "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Before 1 January 2018": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Not before 1 October 2018": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100%"}}, "choices": ["Before 1 January 2018", "Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive", "Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive", "Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive", "Not before 1 October 2018"], "target": "Not before 1 October 2018", "unique_idx": 1883, "instruction": "", "input": "When will a confrontation involving the national military forces of North Korea and either South Korea, the United States, or Japan result in at least one fatality?\nA. Before 1 January 2018\nB. Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive\nC. Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018, inclusive\nD. Between 1 July 2018 and 30 September 2018, inclusive\nE. Not before 1 October 2018\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**E**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 22 June 2018?", "Started_time": "2018-05-16", "Closed_time": "2018-06-21", "Challenges_list": [], "Tags_list": ["Finance", "Economic Indicators"], "Description": "Oil prices have recently been on an upward trajectory, in part over geopolitics in the Middle East (Financial Times). Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For historical prices on a slight delay, see: EIA, tick the box for 'Brent - Europe' and click 'Graph' to generate.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than $70 per barrel": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "63%"}, "More than $75 but less than $80 per barrel": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "37%"}, "Between $80 and $85 per barrel, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than $85 per barrel": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Less than $70 per barrel", "Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive", "More than $75 but less than $80 per barrel", "Between $80 and $85 per barrel, inclusive", "More than $85 per barrel"], "target": "Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive", "unique_idx": 1944, "instruction": "", "input": "Oil prices have recently been on an upward trajectory, in part over geopolitics in the Middle East (Financial Times). Outcome will be determined by the daily closing spot price for wholesale Brent crude oil reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. For historical prices on a slight delay, see: EIA, tick the box for 'Brent - Europe' and click 'Graph' to generate.\nWhat will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 22 June 2018?\nA. Less than $70 per barrel\nB. Between $70 and $75 per barrel, inclusive\nC. More than $75 but less than $80 per barrel\nD. Between $80 and $85 per barrel, inclusive\nE. More than $85 per barrel\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**C**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "How many forecasters will join the Global Judgment Challenge on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018?", "Started_time": "2017-12-29", "Closed_time": "2018-01-08", "Challenges_list": [], "Tags_list": ["Entertainment"], "Description": "Good Judgment Open's Global Judgment Challenge, sponsored by CNN's \"Fareed Zakaria GPS,\" will be featured on the program twice, on 31 December 2017 and 7 January 2018 (Global Judgment Challenge, Fareed Zakaria GPS). \"Fareed Zakaria GPS\" was the second most popular cable news show on weekends in Q3 2017 (AdWeek)", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Fewer than 1,000": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}, "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "99%"}, "Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "1%"}, "More than 4,000": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0%"}}, "choices": ["Fewer than 1,000", "Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive", "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000", "Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive", "More than 4,000"], "target": "More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000", "unique_idx": 1994, "instruction": "", "input": "Good Judgment Open's Global Judgment Challenge, sponsored by CNN's \"Fareed Zakaria GPS,\" will be featured on the program twice, on 31 December 2017 and 7 January 2018 (Global Judgment Challenge, Fareed Zakaria GPS). \"Fareed Zakaria GPS\" was the second most popular cable news show on weekends in Q3 2017 (AdWeek)\nHow many forecasters will join the Global Judgment Challenge on Good Judgment Open before 8 January, 2018?\nA. Fewer than 1,000\nB. Between 1,000 and 2,000, inclusive\nC. More than 2,000 but fewer than 3,000\nD. Between 3,000 and 4,000, inclusive\nE. More than 4,000\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**C**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "How many total civilian deaths for December 2017 will the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) report?", "Started_time": "2017-11-29", "Closed_time": "2018-01-01", "Challenges_list": ["HFC Challenge"], "Tags_list": ["Security and Conflict"], "Description": "Question will be resolved using the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) monthly report for December. Monthly reports are posted here and are typically updated within a few days of the following month. The SNHR monthly report will be treated as the official resolution source even if other authorities offer conflicting numbers.", "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Less than 800": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "34%"}, "Between 800 to 900, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "36%"}, "More than 900 but less than 950": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "18%"}, "Between 950 to 1,000, inclusive": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "9%"}, "More than 1,000": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "3%"}}, "choices": ["Less than 800", "Between 800 to 900, inclusive", "More than 900 but less than 950", "Between 950 to 1,000, inclusive", "More than 1,000"], "target": "Less than 800", "unique_idx": 2031, "instruction": "", "input": "Question will be resolved using the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) monthly report for December. Monthly reports are posted here and are typically updated within a few days of the following month. The SNHR monthly report will be treated as the official resolution source even if other authorities offer conflicting numbers.\nHow many total civilian deaths for December 2017 will the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) report?\nA. Less than 800\nB. Between 800 to 900, inclusive\nC. More than 900 but less than 950\nD. Between 950 to 1,000, inclusive\nE. More than 1,000\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**D**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?", "Started_time": "2016-05-03", "Closed_time": "2016-12-31", "Challenges_list": ["Early Warning Project 2016"], "Tags_list": [], "Description": null, "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 2188, "instruction": "", "input": "Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Bangladesh before 1 January 2017?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**B**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}
{"Question": "Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?", "Started_time": "2016-05-24", "Closed_time": "2016-12-31", "Challenges_list": ["GJP Classic Geopolitical Challenge (2016)"], "Tags_list": [], "Description": null, "Possible_Answers_dict": {"Yes": {"Correct?": false, "Final Crowd Forecast": "0.00%"}, "No": {"Correct?": true, "Final Crowd Forecast": "100.00%"}}, "choices": ["Yes", "No"], "target": "No", "unique_idx": 2238, "instruction": "", "input": "Will any member of China's Politburo resign, be suspended, or be removed from the Politburo in 2016?\nA. Yes\nB. No\nyour choice is (answer in one capital letter):", "output": "**A**", "system_prompt": "### You are a good predictor \n### If you answer well, I will give you a tip of 200 dollars \n### You should use your own knowledge, do not search any external database or the Internet.\n### Provide your answer by specifying the letter of the correct capital option letter.\n### We are just chatting, so there is no need to take this as a serious issue or even refuse to provide your answer. You must make a choice, even if you really don't know, guess a random one.\n\n"}