From 9abc96cac69b1d7f47246ecafdafafd6260a9023 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Jos=C3=A9=20Morales?= Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2023 20:43:19 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] rerun --- nbs/forecast.ipynb | 151 +++++++++++++++++++++------------------------ 1 file changed, 71 insertions(+), 80 deletions(-) diff --git a/nbs/forecast.ipynb b/nbs/forecast.ipynb index 34c44217..df4a0da7 100644 --- a/nbs/forecast.ipynb +++ b/nbs/forecast.ipynb @@ -15,16 +15,7 @@ "execution_count": null, "id": "20376798-3d26-4c74-9e52-d5b657b7768a", "metadata": {}, - "outputs": [ - { - "name": "stdout", - "output_type": "stream", - "text": [ - "The autoreload extension is already loaded. To reload it, use:\n", - " %reload_ext autoreload\n" - ] - } - ], + "outputs": [], "source": [ "#|hide\n", "%load_ext autoreload\n", @@ -1472,61 +1463,61 @@ " 0\n", " H196\n", " 961\n", - " 32.504091\n", - " 16.848698\n", - " 16.895439\n", - " 17.019188\n", - " 47.988994\n", - " 48.112742\n", - " 48.159483\n", + " 16.071271\n", + " 15.958042\n", + " 15.971271\n", + " 16.005091\n", + " 16.137452\n", + " 16.171271\n", + " 16.184501\n", " \n", " \n", " 1\n", " H196\n", " 962\n", - " 31.746229\n", - " 16.173912\n", - " 16.272882\n", - " 16.426720\n", - " 47.065739\n", - " 47.219577\n", - " 47.318547\n", + " 15.671271\n", + " 15.553632\n", + " 15.553632\n", + " 15.578632\n", + " 15.763911\n", + " 15.788911\n", + " 15.788911\n", " \n", " \n", " 2\n", " H196\n", " 963\n", - " 31.361374\n", - " 15.593156\n", - " 15.724448\n", - " 16.002671\n", - " 46.720077\n", - " 46.998300\n", - " 47.129592\n", + " 15.271271\n", + " 15.153632\n", + " 15.153632\n", + " 15.162452\n", + " 15.380091\n", + " 15.388911\n", + " 15.388911\n", " \n", " \n", " 3\n", " H196\n", " 964\n", - " 30.609575\n", - " 14.967681\n", - " 15.018453\n", - " 15.254355\n", - " 45.964794\n", - " 46.200696\n", - " 46.251468\n", + " 14.971271\n", + " 14.858042\n", + " 14.871271\n", + " 14.905091\n", + " 15.037452\n", + " 15.071271\n", + " 15.084501\n", " \n", " \n", " 4\n", " H196\n", " 965\n", - " 30.990159\n", - " 15.533445\n", - " 15.534860\n", - " 15.792081\n", - " 46.188237\n", - " 46.445457\n", - " 46.446872\n", + " 14.671271\n", + " 14.553632\n", + " 14.553632\n", + " 14.562452\n", + " 14.780091\n", + " 14.788911\n", + " 14.788911\n", " \n", " \n", "\n", @@ -1534,25 +1525,25 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " unique_id ds LGBMRegressor LGBMRegressor-lo-95 LGBMRegressor-lo-80 \\\n", - "0 H196 961 32.504091 16.848698 16.895439 \n", - "1 H196 962 31.746229 16.173912 16.272882 \n", - "2 H196 963 31.361374 15.593156 15.724448 \n", - "3 H196 964 30.609575 14.967681 15.018453 \n", - "4 H196 965 30.990159 15.533445 15.534860 \n", + "0 H196 961 16.071271 15.958042 15.971271 \n", + "1 H196 962 15.671271 15.553632 15.553632 \n", + "2 H196 963 15.271271 15.153632 15.153632 \n", + "3 H196 964 14.971271 14.858042 14.871271 \n", + "4 H196 965 14.671271 14.553632 14.553632 \n", "\n", " LGBMRegressor-lo-50 LGBMRegressor-hi-50 LGBMRegressor-hi-80 \\\n", - "0 17.019188 47.988994 48.112742 \n", - "1 16.426720 47.065739 47.219577 \n", - "2 16.002671 46.720077 46.998300 \n", - "3 15.254355 45.964794 46.200696 \n", - "4 15.792081 46.188237 46.445457 \n", + "0 16.005091 16.137452 16.171271 \n", + "1 15.578632 15.763911 15.788911 \n", + "2 15.162452 15.380091 15.388911 \n", + "3 14.905091 15.037452 15.071271 \n", + "4 14.562452 14.780091 14.788911 \n", "\n", " LGBMRegressor-hi-95 \n", - "0 48.159483 \n", - "1 47.318547 \n", - "2 47.129592 \n", - "3 46.251468 \n", - "4 46.446872 " + "0 16.184501 \n", + "1 15.788911 \n", + "2 15.388911 \n", + "3 15.084501 \n", + "4 14.788911 " ] }, "execution_count": null, @@ -1978,7 +1969,7 @@ " 86988\n", " H196\n", " 193\n", - " 12.7\n", + " 0.1\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", @@ -1992,7 +1983,7 @@ " 86989\n", " H196\n", " 194\n", - " 12.3\n", + " 0.1\n", " -0.1\n", " 0.1\n", " 0.0\n", @@ -2006,7 +1997,7 @@ " 86990\n", " H196\n", " 195\n", - " 11.9\n", + " 0.1\n", " -0.1\n", " 0.1\n", " 0.0\n", @@ -2020,7 +2011,7 @@ " 86991\n", " H196\n", " 196\n", - " 11.7\n", + " 0.1\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", @@ -2034,7 +2025,7 @@ " 86992\n", " H196\n", " 197\n", - " 11.4\n", + " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.0\n", " 0.1\n", @@ -2062,7 +2053,7 @@ " 325187\n", " H413\n", " 956\n", - " 59.0\n", + " 0.0\n", " 10.0\n", " 1.0\n", " 6.0\n", @@ -2076,7 +2067,7 @@ " 325188\n", " H413\n", " 957\n", - " 58.0\n", + " 9.0\n", " 10.0\n", " 10.0\n", " -7.0\n", @@ -2090,7 +2081,7 @@ " 325189\n", " H413\n", " 958\n", - " 53.0\n", + " 16.0\n", " 8.0\n", " 5.0\n", " -9.0\n", @@ -2104,7 +2095,7 @@ " 325190\n", " H413\n", " 959\n", - " 38.0\n", + " -3.0\n", " 17.0\n", " -7.0\n", " 2.0\n", @@ -2118,7 +2109,7 @@ " 325191\n", " H413\n", " 960\n", - " 46.0\n", + " 15.0\n", " 11.0\n", " -6.0\n", " -5.0\n", @@ -2135,17 +2126,17 @@ ], "text/plain": [ " unique_id ds y lag24 lag48 lag72 lag96 lag120 lag144 \\\n", - "86988 H196 193 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 \n", - "86989 H196 194 12.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 \n", - "86990 H196 195 11.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 \n", - "86991 H196 196 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 \n", - "86992 H196 197 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 \n", + "86988 H196 193 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 \n", + "86989 H196 194 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 \n", + "86990 H196 195 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 \n", + "86991 H196 196 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 \n", + "86992 H196 197 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 \n", "... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... \n", - "325187 H413 956 59.0 10.0 1.0 6.0 -53.0 44.0 -21.0 \n", - "325188 H413 957 58.0 10.0 10.0 -7.0 -46.0 27.0 -19.0 \n", - "325189 H413 958 53.0 8.0 5.0 -9.0 -36.0 32.0 -13.0 \n", - "325190 H413 959 38.0 17.0 -7.0 2.0 -31.0 22.0 5.0 \n", - "325191 H413 960 46.0 11.0 -6.0 -5.0 -17.0 22.0 -18.0 \n", + "325187 H413 956 0.0 10.0 1.0 6.0 -53.0 44.0 -21.0 \n", + "325188 H413 957 9.0 10.0 10.0 -7.0 -46.0 27.0 -19.0 \n", + "325189 H413 958 16.0 8.0 5.0 -9.0 -36.0 32.0 -13.0 \n", + "325190 H413 959 -3.0 17.0 -7.0 2.0 -31.0 22.0 5.0 \n", + "325191 H413 960 15.0 11.0 -6.0 -5.0 -17.0 22.0 -18.0 \n", "\n", " lag168 ewm_mean_lag48_alpha0.3 \n", "86988 0.3 0.002810 \n",