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<p>You should expect this schedule to be a dynamic document. Although the the objectives for this course are fixed, the details of how to accomplish those objectives will depend on the interaction between the instructors and students in the course.</p>
<p>When I make changes, these changes will be recorded in the <a href="https://github.com/UW-POLS503/pols_503_sp16/commits/gh-pages/schedule.html">history</a> of this page on GitHub so that you can track what has changed. I will notify you of changes in class or via email.</p>
<p>I will ask the class for feedback frequently—both in class and anonymously via surveys. Please let me know what is working and what can be improved. I will make adjustments based on this feedback.</p>
<div id="week-1" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 1</h2>
<div id="tuesday-march-29" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-03-29">Tuesday, March 29</time></h3>
<ul>
<li>Introduction</li>
<li>Install software and set up GitHub accounts</li>
</ul>
<div id="reading" class="section level4">
<h4>Reading</h4>
<p>skim after class, I will discuss ideas inspired by these sources:</p>
<ul>
<li>Jenny Bryan, Karen Cranston, Justin Kitzez, Lex Nederbragt, Tracy Teal, and Greg Wilson. <a href="http://swcarpentry.github.io/good-enough-practices-in-scientific-computing/">Good Enough Practices for Scientific Computing</a>.</li>
<li>Matthew Gentzkow and Jesse M. Shapiro. <a href="http://swcarpentry.github.io/good-enough-practices-in-scientific-computing/">Code and Data for the Social Sciences: A Practitioner’s Guide</a>. March, 2014. Especially Chapter 3: Version Control. The principles of this are good though I don’t follow all their exact prescriptions. The practices adopted for this class are closer to “Good Enough Practices.”</li>
<li>Zachary M. Jones. <a href="http://thepoliticalmethodologist.com/2013/11/18/gitgithub-transparency-and-legitimacy-in-quantitative-research/">Git/Github, Transparency, and Legitimacy in Quantitative Research</a> <em>Political Methodologist</em></li>
<li>Carlisle Rainey <a href="https://github.com/carlislerainey/git-for-political-science">Git for Political Science</a>. Combined with Zach Jones’ article, provides a discussion on Git and GitHub from a political scientist’s point of view.</li>
<li>Roger Peng. 2011. <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/334/6060/1226.full">Reproducible Research in Computational Science</a> <em>Science</em></li>
<li>Roger Peng. <a href="http://simplystatistics.org/2013/08/21/treading-a-new-path-for-reproducible-research-part-1/">Treading a New Path for Reproducible Research</a> <a href="http://simplystatistics.org/2014/06/06/the-real-reason-reproducible-research-is-important/">The Real Reason Reproducible Research is Important</a>.</li>
<li>Thomas Leeper. 2015. <a href="http://thomasleeper.com/2015/05/open-science-language/">What’s In a Name? The Concepts and Language of Replication and Reproducibility</a>. blog post. May 12, 2015.</li>
<li>Symposium on Openness in Political Science: Data Access and Research Transparency</li>
<li>Recent <a href="http://www.dartstatement.org/#!2012-apsa-ethics-guide-changes/c13ay">2012 DA-RT Ethics Guide Changes</a> and the <a href="http://www.dartstatement.org/">2014 Journal Editors’ Transparency Statement</a>, and the <a href="https://cos.io/top/">Center for Open Science Transparency and Openness Promotion Guidelines</a>. See the <a href="http://www.dartstatement.org/">DA-RT</a> website for more information.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.apsanet.org/PUBLICATIONS/Journals/APSR-Submission-Guidelines-2016-in-Brief">APSR Submission Guidelines</a> section on “Data Access, Production Transparency and Analytic Transparency.” and <em>AJPS</em> <a href="http://media.wix.com/ugd/fa8393_d2b63b1d72ee40599ae27ec28bb3291d.pdf">Guidelines for Preparing Replication Materials</a>.</li>
<li><em>PS: Political Science and Politics</em> Symposium on <a href="http://media.wix.com/ugd/fa8393_d55bef088ac44830bd194b5f80190479.pdf">Openness in Political Science: Data Access and Research Transparency</a>. January 2014.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="thursday-march-31" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-03-31">Thursday, March 31</time></h3>
<div id="agenda" class="section level4">
<h4>Agenda</h4>
<ul>
<li>Continue set-up of Git and GitHub</li>
<li><a href="git.html">Getting Started with Git and GitHub</a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/UW-POLS503/Assignment_00">Assignment 0</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="friday-april-1" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-01">Friday, April 1</time></h3>
<p>For loops and functions</p>
<ul>
<li>Hadley Wickham <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/">R for Data Science</a>, Chapters <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/programming.html">14</a>, <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/pipes.html">15</a>, <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/functions.html">16</a>, <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/data-structures.html">17</a>, <a href="http://r4ds.had.co.nz/iteration.html#for-loops">18</a> on For loops.</li>
<li>Roger Peng. <a href="https://leanpub.com/rprogramming">R Programming for Data Science</a>, Chapter 14: Control Structures, and Chapter 15: Functions.</li>
<li>Data Camp course <a href="https://www.datacamp.com/courses/intermediate-r">Intermediate R</a> will help if you need more practice.</li>
</ul>
<p>R markdown</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com/">Rstudio Markdown website</a></li>
<li>Roger Peng. <a href="https://leanpub.com/reportwriting">Report Writing for Data Science in R</a> for some more discussion of reproducible research (some of which is more relevant to biostatistics than political science) and discussion of R markdown in particular</li>
<li>Data Camp course <a href="https://www.datacamp.com/courses/reporting-with-r-markdown">Reporting with R Markdown</a> for more practice if you need it.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-2" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 2</h2>
<div id="readings" class="section level4">
<h4>Readings</h4>
<ul>
<li>Chapters 1 and 2 of Wooldridge</li>
<li>Chapter 1 of <em>Mostly Harmless Econometrics</em></li>
<li><p>Review matrix algebra: you should understand what vectors and matrices are. How to add, subtract, and multiply them. And what a matrix inverse is, what it’s properties are. You don’t need to worry about how to calculate a matrix inverse, since you’ll never do that by hand.</p></li>
<li>Wooldridge appendix</li>
<li>Kahn Academy course <a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/math/precalculus/precalc-matrices">Matrices</a> lessons: Introduction, Representing linear systems of equations, elementary matrix row operations, adding and subtracting matrices, multiplying matrices by scalars, properties of matrix addition and scalar multiplication, multiplying matrices by matrices, properties of matrix multiplication, introduction to matrix inverses.</li>
<li><p><a href="files/matrix.pdf">Matrix algebra handout</a></p></li>
</ul>
<p>Friday: paragraph proposal due.</p>
</div>
<div id="tuesday-april-5" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-05">Tuesday, April 5</time></h3>
<div id="class-agenda" class="section level4">
<h4>Class Agenda</h4>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>Confirm that you can push to GitHub Accounts.</li>
<li>Discuss <a href="assignments_project_1.html">Project Assignment 1</a></li>
<li>Types of research questions, types of analysis. <a href="slides/research_questions_and_design.pdf">slides</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="supplementary-reading" class="section level4">
<h4>Supplementary Reading</h4>
<ul>
<li>Keele, Luke. 2015. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv007">The Statistics of Causal Inference: A View from Political Methodology</a>. <em>Political Analysis</em></li>
<li>Dunning, Thad. 2010. <a href="http://www.thaddunning.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Dunning_Rethinking-Social-Inquiry.pdf">Design Based Inference: Beyond the Pitfalls of Regression Analysis</a> in <em>Rethinking Social Inquiry</em></li>
<li>Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2009. <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060606.135444">Opiates for the Matches: Matching Methods for Causal Inference</a>. <em>Annual Review of Political Science</em></li>
<li>Grimmer, Justin. 2015. <a href="http://stanford.edu/~jgrimmer/bd_2.pdf">We’re All Social Scientists Now: How Big Data, Machine Learning, and Causal Inference Work Together</a>. <em>PS: Political Science & Politics</em></li>
<li>Angrist, Joshua D., and Jörn-Steffen Pischke. 2010. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.2.3">The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design Is Taking the Con out of Econometrics</a>. <em>Journal of Economic Perspectives.</em></li>
<li>Gelman, Andrew and Guido Imbens. 2013. <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w19614">Why ask why? Forward Causal Inference and Reverse Causal Questions</a>.</li>
<li>EGAP articles on <a href="http://egap.org/methods-guides/10-strategies-figuring-out-if-x-caused-y">10 Strategies for Figuring Out if X Caused Y</a> or <a href="http://egap.org/methods-guides/10-things-you-need-know-about-causal-inference">10 Things You Need to Know About Causal Inference</a>.</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="thursday-april-7" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-07">Thursday, April 7</time></h3>
<div id="class-agenda-1" class="section level4">
<h4>Class Agenda</h4>
<ol style="list-style-type: decimal">
<li>Assigned and started working on <a href="https://github.com/UW-POLS503/Assignment_01">Assignment 1</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
<div id="supplementary-reading-1" class="section level4">
<h4>Supplementary Reading</h4>
<p>See <a href="regression_in_R.html">Linear Regression Functions in R</a> for more help</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="friday-april-8" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-08">Friday, April 8</time></h3>
<p>NO CLASS due to MPSA</p>
<p><a href="assignmens_project_1.html">Research Project Assignment 1</a> due at 17:00 PDT.</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-3" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 3</h2>
<div id="tuesday-april-12" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-12">Tuesday, April 12</time></h3>
<p>Class Agenda</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/what-is-regression.pdf">Conditional Expectation Functions slides</a></li>
<li><a href="slides/cef_example.R">Example code</a></li>
<li><a href="http://setosa.io/ev/conditional-probability/">Conditional Probability: Explained Visually</a></li>
<li>[Ordinary Least Squares Regression: Explained Visually]<a href="http://setosa.io/ev/ordinary-least-squares-regression/" class="uri">http://setosa.io/ev/ordinary-least-squares-regression/</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="thursday-april-14" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-14">Thursday, April 14</time></h3>
<p><strong>No Class</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://github.com/UW-POLS503/Assignment_01">Assignment 1 due</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="friday-april-15" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-15">Friday, April 15</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="lessons_functional_forms2.html">Transformations: Logarithm, Squared Terms</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-4" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 4</h2>
<p>Topics</p>
<ul>
<li>Omitted Variable Bias</li>
<li>Multiple regression anatomy</li>
<li>Properties of Ordinary Least Squares</li>
<li>Inference for Ordinary Least Squares</li>
<li>Interpretation of p-Values and Confidence Intervals</li>
<li>Substantive Significance</li>
<li>Power</li>
</ul>
<p>Readings</p>
<ul>
<li>Wooldridge. <em>Introductory Econometrics</em>. Ch 4.</li>
<li>Wasserstein, Ronald L, and Nicole A. Lazar. 2016. “<a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2016.1154108">The ASA’s Statement on p-values: Context, Process, and Purpose</a>”. <em>The American Statistician</em>.</li>
<li>Aschwanden. 2015. “<a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/science-isnt-broken/">Science Isn’t Broken</a>” <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/">fivethirtyeight.com</a>.</li>
<li>Gelman, Andrew, and Eric Loken. 2014. “<a href="http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2014/6/the-statistical-crisis-in-science/">The Statistical Crisis in Science</a>”. <em>The American Scientist</em></li>
<li>Regina Nuzzo. 2014. <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/scientific-method-statistical-errors-1.14700?WT.mc_id=PIN_NatureNews">Scientific Method: Statistical Errors</a>. <em>Nature</em></li>
<li>Simply Statistics. 2014. <a href="http://simplystatistics.org/2014/02/14/on-the-scalability-of-statistical-procedures-why-the-p-value-bashers-just-dont-get-it/">On the scalability of statistical procedures: why the p-value bashers just don’t get it.</a></li>
<li>Simply Statistics. 2012. <a href="http://simplystatistics.org/2012/01/06/p-values-and-hypothesis-testing-get-a-bad-rap-but-we/"><a href="http://simplystatistics.org/2012/01/06/p-values-and-hypothesis-testing-get-a-bad-rap-but-we/" class="uri">http://simplystatistics.org/2012/01/06/p-values-and-hypothesis-testing-get-a-bad-rap-but-we/</a></a></li>
<li>Matthew Hankins. 2013. <a href="https://mchankins.wordpress.com/2013/04/21/still-not-significant-2/">Still Not Significant</a>. Online. Probable Error blog.</li>
<li>xkcd.com. <a href="https://xkcd.com/882/">Significant</a>, <a href="https://xkcd.com/1478/">p-values</a></li>
</ul>
<div id="tuesday-april-19" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-14">Tuesday, April 19</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="thursday-april-21" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-21">Thursday, April 21</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="friday-april-22" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-22">Friday, April 22</time></h3>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-5" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 5</h2>
<p>Topics</p>
<ul>
<li>Non-constant Variance (Heteroskedasticity)</li>
<li>Omitted Variable Bias</li>
<li>Measurement Error</li>
<li>Multicollinearity</li>
<li>Outliers</li>
<li>Non-linearity</li>
<li>Interaction Terms</li>
</ul>
<p>Readings</p>
<ul>
<li>Wooldrige, Ch. 7: “Multiple Regression Analysis with Qualitative Information”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 8: “Heteroskedasticity”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 9.1 “Functional Form Misspecification”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 9.6 “Least Absolute Deviations Estimation”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 9.4 “Properties of OLS under Measurement Error”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 17.1: “Logit and Probit Models for Binary Response”</li>
<li>Brambor, Thomas, and William Roberts Clark, and Matt Golder. 2006. “<a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi014">Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses</a>” <em>Political Analysis</em></li>
<li>Matt Golder <a href="http://mattgolder.com/interactions">Interactions</a></li>
</ul>
<div id="tuesday-april-26" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-26">Tuesday, April 26</time></h3>
<p><strong>Due</strong> Project paper draft #1: Theory, Data Description, and Model Sections.</p>
</div>
<div id="thursday-april-28" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-28">Thursday, April 28</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="sldies/regression-diagnostics.pdf">slides</a> on overview of OLS assumptions and regression diagnostics.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="friday-april-29" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-04-29">Friday, April 29</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://github.com/UW-POLS503/Assignment_05">Interactions</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-6" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 6</h2>
<div id="tuesday-may-3" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-03">Tuesday, May 3</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/diagnostics.pdf">slides</a> on OVB, Measurement Error, Missing Data, Non-Normal Errors</li>
<li><a href="missing_data_imputation.html">Multiple imputation example</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="thursday-may-5" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-05">Thursday, May 5</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/diagnostics2.pdf">slides</a></li>
<li><a href="outliers_robust_regression.html">Example with outliers</a></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Due</strong> Peer Review of project draft #1.</p>
</div>
<div id="friday-may-6" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-06">Friday, May 6</time></h3>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-7" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 7</h2>
<ul>
<li>Model Selection</li>
<li>Model Fit</li>
<li>Prediction</li>
<li>Cross-Validation</li>
</ul>
<div id="tuesday-may-10" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-10">Tuesday, May 10</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/r2_regression_fit.pdf">R squared slides</a></li>
<li><a href="files/heteroskedasticity-example.R">Heteroskedasticity example code</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="thursday-may-12" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-12">Thursday, May 12</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/cross-validation.pdf">Cross validation slides</a></li>
<li><a href="files/cross-validation.R">Cross validation example code</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="friday-may-13" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-13">Friday, May 13</time></h3>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-8" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 8</h2>
<p>Topics</p>
<ul>
<li>Experimental Ideal</li>
<li>Potential Outcomes</li>
<li>Selection on Observables: Regression</li>
</ul>
<p>Readings</p>
<ul>
<li><em>MHE</em>, Ch 2: “The Experimental Ideal”</li>
<li><em>MHE</em>, Ch 3: “Making Regression Make Sense”</li>
</ul>
<div id="monday-may-16" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-16">Monday, May 16</time></h3>
<p><strong>Due</strong> Project draft analysis</p>
</div>
<div id="tuesday-may-17" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-17">Tuesday, May 17</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="thursday-may-19" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-19">Thursday, May 19</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="friday-may-20" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-20">Friday, May 20</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="lessons_categorical_covariates.html">Interactions</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-9" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 9</h2>
<ul>
<li>Fixed Effects</li>
<li>Differences-in-differences</li>
<li>Clustered Standard Errors</li>
</ul>
<p>Readings</p>
<ul>
<li><em>MHE</em>, Ch 5: “Parallel Worlds”</li>
<li><em>MHE</em>, Ch 8: “Non-standard Standard Error Issues”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 13: “Pooling Cross Sections Across Time”</li>
<li>Wooldridge, Ch 14: “Advanced Panel Data Methods”</li>
</ul>
<div id="tuesday-may-24" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-24">Tuesday, May 24</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="thursday-may-26" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-26">Thursday, May 26</time></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="panel.html">panel examples</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="friday-may-27" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-27">Friday, May 27</time></h3>
<p><strong>Due</strong> Peer review of Project analysis</p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="week-10" class="section level2">
<h2>Week 10</h2>
<p>Topics</p>
<ul>
<li>Writing, presenting results</li>
</ul>
<p>Readings</p>
<ul>
<li>Gelman, Andrew, and Cristian Pasarica and Rahul Dodhia. 2002. “<a href="http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/dodhia.pdf">Let’s Practice What We Preach: Turning Tables into Graphs</a>.” <em>The American Statistician.</em></li>
<li>Kastellec, Jonathan P. and Eduardo L. Leoni. 2007. “<a href="https://www.princeton.edu/~jkastell/graphs.pdf">Using Graphs Instead of Tables in Political Science</a>.” <em>American Journal of Political Science.</em></li>
<li>Gary King, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. 2000. “<a href="http://j.mp/mBsCxb">Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation</a>.” <em>American Journal of Political Science</em></li>
<li>Kelly McCaskey and Carlisle Rainey. 2016. <a href="https://github.com/carlislerainey/meaningful-inferences/blob/master/doc/meaningful.pdf?raw=true">Substantive Importance and the Veil of Statistical Significance</a>."</li>
<li>Wooldrige, Ch 19: “Carrying Out an Empirical Project”</li>
<li>Schrodt, Philip A. 2014. “<a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343313499597">Seven Deadly Sins of Contemporary Quantitative Political Analysis</a>.” <em>Journal of Peace Research</em></li>
</ul>
<div id="tuesday-may-31" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-05-31">Tuesday, May 31</time></h3>
</div>
<div id="thursday-june-2" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-06-02">Thursday, June 2</time></h3>
<p><strong>Due</strong> Draft of project final paper</p>
</div>
<div id="friday-june-3" class="section level3">
<h3><time datetime="2016-06-03">Friday, June 3</time></h3>
</div>
</div>
<div id="finals-period" class="section level2">
<h2>Finals Period</h2>
<p><span id="final-paper-due"><strong>Final paper due on <time datetime="2016-06-08 23:59:00 PDT">June 8, 11:59 pm </time></strong></span></p>
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