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This repository has been archived by the owner on Mar 24, 2021. It is now read-only.
The site should have a stats page or something, where you can find out what fraction of judgments are "right" vs "wrong".
This seems relevant for doing probability estimates for questions that you doesn't know much about. One could say that if you really have no idea whatsoever if something will come to pass or not, you should estimate 50%. But suppose that the questions submitted to the site tend to get judged wrong more often than right; in that case your "I have no idea" guess should probably be lower than 50%. Perhaps the mere fact that a question was posted on the site is a relevant truth signal.
Incidentally, of the "recently judged" questions currently shown on the Happenstance page, 45 were judged right and 55 wrong.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered:
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The site should have a stats page or something, where you can find out what fraction of judgments are "right" vs "wrong".
This seems relevant for doing probability estimates for questions that you doesn't know much about. One could say that if you really have no idea whatsoever if something will come to pass or not, you should estimate 50%. But suppose that the questions submitted to the site tend to get judged wrong more often than right; in that case your "I have no idea" guess should probably be lower than 50%. Perhaps the mere fact that a question was posted on the site is a relevant truth signal.
Incidentally, of the "recently judged" questions currently shown on the Happenstance page, 45 were judged right and 55 wrong.
The text was updated successfully, but these errors were encountered: