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<h1>Death by Global Warming</h1>
<h2 class="subheading">How global warming stands to hurt us directly if current trends persist</h2>
<span class="meta">Posted by <a href="#">David Nola</a> on June 3, 2015</span>
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<p><br>
</p>
<p>In this blog post I intend to demonstrate a simple model of global
warming derived from the Stephan-Bolzmann law, and use it to build an
interactive model of global warming. The end goal of the model is to
look at one of the most direct results of an increase in global
tempurature: human death due to natural heat. <br>
</p>
<big><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why Global Warming?</span> <span style="font-weight: bold;">Why death to natural heat?</span>
</big><br>
<p>Global warming is an oft-discussed topic that has become a
hot-button issue in many political discussions. The politization of
global warming has turned it into a highly controversial issue - but an
issue that is only really controversial in the media, and amongst
laypeople. In the scientific community, there exists a broad scientific
consensus that human inflicted climate change is not only possible, but
highly likely if current trends persist. In fact, no scientific body of
international standing disagrees with this view (<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006EO360008/abstract">Source</a>).
All too often in the media, we discuss various sensor measurements and
debate various mechanisms that have affected temperature through
history - but interpretation of the various measurements and theories
we hear have nothing to do with this consensus. These theories and
measurements are set up as a straw man that make global warming appear
much more controversial than it actually is - I'm positive you have
heard of arguments about global heating and cooling cycles by now (Like
<a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783">this</a>).
</p>
<p>The problem with these sorts of arguments is that the scientific
foundation of global warming doesn't stem from a belief in any sort of
cycle, or any past trend of measurement, incidence of ice age, or
anything else. In fact, the broad scientific consensus really has its
foundation in a simple law of physics you can find in any college level
textbook - the Stephan-Bolzmann Law. Given this law, it is
mathematically demonstrable that an increase in CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere will increase global tempurature. I intend to
demonstrate that math here (It isn't hard), and show the repercussions
of that math given the current trends of CO2 production relative to CO2
absorption. The earth absolutely has natural processes of heating and
cooling independant of human driven processes,
but when discussing global warming it is really more of an
issue of how much mankind can directly 'move the needle' independant of
any cycle or historical fluctuation - and change global temperatures
from what they would be otherwise. To put it in perspective, the
absolute range of mean temperature in the last five million years as
measured via delta-O-18 (a ratio of two oxygen isotopes that are
produced in different ratios at different temperatures) in geological
core samples is about 10 degrees C from max to min
- so even a single degree of climate change from baseline in a thousand
years due to human processes would still be massively significant.
(Source: <a href="http://lorraine-lisiecki.com/LisieckiRaymo2005.pdf">here</a> for delta-Os, using the relationship that that a delta-O
of 0.22‰ is equivalent to a 1 degree C cooling, ceteris paribus.)</p>
<p>As for why I chose to fixate on death to natural heat, again I want
to stick to the things I can demonstrate on paper in a way any typical
college educated layperson should be able to understand. Natural heat
kills hundreds of people every year in the USA, sometimes even reaching the
thousands. It follows that more heat means more death to heat - a trend
which I can demonstrate using government death statistics on a
state-by-state level. There are any number of theories on the
disastrous consequences of changes in global tempurature - but it is
hard to prove undeniably that any of these disasters will happen. Death
to natural heat, on the other hand, already happens - it is a fact that
natural heat is deadly, so it is a much more concrete consequence that
I can form my model on top of.<br>
</p>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><big>The Law, and our CO2 Production:</big></p>
The Stefan-Bolzmann law relates the power radiated from a black body to
its temperature. By accounting for a body's emissivity, the model can be
extended to cover grey bodies, such as Earth. The following is the law:<br>
<br>
<br>
<div style="text-align: center;"><big><big>The Stefan-Boltzmann law:</big><br>
(For a black body)</big><small><br>
<br>
</small><big>F = σ*T^4 </big><br>
<br>
Where F is energy emitted in Joules per second per square meter<br>
σ is a constant (5.67037310−8 W m^−2 K^−4)<br>
and T is temperature (in K)<br>
The effective T for the earth is 255K<br>
</div>
<br>
<br>
Now, differentiating the law and solving for dT, we can get a relationship between change in F and change in T as follows:<br>
<br>
<div style="text-align: center;">dF/dT=4*σ* T^3<br>
<br>
dT=dF/(4*σ* T^3 )<br>
<br>
dF as measured by spectroscope for a doubling of CO2 concentration is 3.7 W m^−2<br>
</div>
<br>
Plugging in the given numbers, we reach a dT of 0.984K - essentially
just under 1 degree C. Treating Earth as a gray body and accounting for
emissivity actually doesn't change this number too much - yielding a dT
of around 1.6C instead - which is more in line with IPCC estimates
built using historical observational data (<a style="text-decoration: underline;" href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-014-2342-y">Source</a>).
Nevertheless, the 1C number is an oft-used bare minimum estimate in
climate science, so for the sake of building a conservative model, I
will use the 1C number.<br>
<br>
In terms of CO2 production, most estimates put us in the range of 30 gigatons of CO2 annually (<a href="http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=3628#.VXLIpWCm2TA"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source</span></a>) with 46% of that actually being absorbed by the amosphere (The rest gets absorbed by plants and the ocean - <a style="text-decoration: underline;" href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2013/07/03/how-much-co2-can-the-oceans-take-up/">Source</a>). To put those numbers in perspective, the Earth's atmosphere contains roughly 750 gigatons of CO2 in total (<a href="http://www.epa.gov/aml/revital/cseqapp.pdf"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Source</span></a>). <br>
<big><br>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">The Data on Death to Natural Heat:</span></big>
<br>
<br>
Lorem ipsum<br>
<p style="font-weight: bold;"><big>A Description of the Model:</big></p>
Lorem ipsum
<p><big><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Model:</span></big><br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p><big><span style="font-weight: bold;">Conclusion:</span></big></p>
<p>In conclusion, human driven climate change is a near certainty at
this point. With some luck, we might catch the earth in a natural
cooling trend, but our rate of carbon production is so high that even a
record breaking cooling cycle wouldn't be able to stop it. At best it
could buy us some time. Short of that, climate change in the next 100
years is inevitable - and as the above model demonstrates - is going to
cause disastrous outcomes even when using conservative numbers. Simply
put, if we continue to inject politics into global warming when the
objective data and the basic laws of the universe imply disastrous
outcomes, we are digging ourselves into a hole we might never be able
to get out of. Human driven climate change is not an opinion, or a
conspiracy, or a political stance, it is a cold hard fact. Public views
on global warming need to change fast, or it will be too late.<br>
<span style="font-weight: bold;"></span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold;"></span><br>
</p></div>
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