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zE(OCNe4<63T7j=4Ls-mj=o-7C%Xo#^>JcD0^eNWdRQldDBf)0QM)yMk4o9(DuX0K^ z%W+ih(US}+@(QhVjRph;f|XR5g@r{xKtNo)CYW~(swUXOZc+|nBbvI8P#&$Vt(+9C zW8&dw5lN}I7iYEXHMkfxi3reZl>1-{i-)rU$-R^wIWj!UWu@)V?` z_bZQKK_C)t-MVFNkx2`c+w$Vb@fz<|xKhpgnO7gJHiHyWoRw^PzUozv1xC8U`G$P800$4KDIEw!!(DUz#tum3mVCdA2&XXSaX$!daw<} z1dgWv*g1etM0wTd7nUG8U5fPu$EpiyU}OZt-2vE&p=NrnG;N53Z68j#4&>|Xt*^hc zWxq$@g}*sL8x5aAvH*iCxclfAS9nqDK@${&FxLg?cpsMlgONWlurD;;MCWb+fFGP4 zw^j@V9VKNBCF-R2r~ld>A^s)Hhdxh*wenjvtUa!IATF?L_1lf znkbIW&(?~tK)2{@Yh(6K;db(uKKiIDQ`2>1F;>Bk9>2IyTvoDR*9O!qz{+Y|A4KLT zj@s*%rUwUeb!DZyn7dVtqU6Vxcn<9<7w}&|*>oU#Anj6bP0)YzehaHi5YBz!6B1e! zX1WKR^goP9{3)!Xs(;z6Jv^u}lDilmOo!rNT_sl(?cSbngF*o6(-GKV;G<4f@3#a@ z#Rt(i*}Oym&p?B_YGW>Dlg#adxnURia$op_&hgP?-f$1-^>Ebme||E}fAQHk|IH{j cd5VdBG%nJP`<4Yhc?ThTN8$E+q^|G(14%mn#sB~S diff --git a/vignettes/EpiNow2.Rmd b/vignettes/EpiNow2.Rmd index bb954d5db..b7a4ae94e 100644 --- a/vignettes/EpiNow2.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/EpiNow2.Rmd @@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ estimates <- epinow( data = reported_cases, generation_time = gt_opts(example_generation_time), delays = delay_opts(example_incubation_period + reporting_delay), - rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.2)), + rt = rt_opts(prior = LogNormal(mean = 2, sd = 0.2)), stan = stan_opts(cores = 4, control = list(adapt_delta = 0.99)), verbose = interactive() ) @@ -152,11 +152,11 @@ knitr::kable(summary(estimates)) |measure |estimate | |:--------------------------------|:------------------------| -|New infections per day |2266 (1324 -- 4172) | +|New infections per day |2236 (1329 -- 4036) | |Expected change in daily reports |Likely decreasing | -|Effective reproduction no. |0.9 (0.71 -- 1.2) | -|Rate of growth |-0.027 (-0.093 -- 0.051) | -|Doubling/halving time (days) |-26 (14 -- -7.5) | +|Effective reproduction no. |0.89 (0.71 -- 1.1) | +|Rate of growth |-0.028 (-0.094 -- 0.049) | +|Doubling/halving time (days) |-25 (14 -- -7.4) | @@ -167,20 +167,20 @@ Summarised parameter estimates can also easily be returned, either filtered for head(summary(estimates, type = "parameters", params = "R")) #> date variable strat type median mean sd lower_90 #> -#> 1: 2020-02-22 R estimate 2.287987 2.290720 0.14678968 2.056834 -#> 2: 2020-02-23 R estimate 2.247641 2.251922 0.13171390 2.038763 -#> 3: 2020-02-24 R estimate 2.208073 2.210936 0.11891193 2.016136 -#> 4: 2020-02-25 R estimate 2.165172 2.167861 0.10846265 1.991208 -#> 5: 2020-02-26 R estimate 2.120656 2.122831 0.10027192 1.960414 -#> 6: 2020-02-27 R estimate 2.074142 2.076024 0.09406499 1.925058 +#> 1: 2020-02-22 R estimate 2.283241 2.292722 0.14061810 2.075280 +#> 2: 2020-02-23 R estimate 2.247530 2.253561 0.12673725 2.054324 +#> 3: 2020-02-24 R estimate 2.205511 2.212174 0.11519281 2.027170 +#> 4: 2020-02-25 R estimate 2.163334 2.168677 0.10586586 1.999294 +#> 5: 2020-02-26 R estimate 2.119453 2.123228 0.09850283 1.968758 +#> 6: 2020-02-27 R estimate 2.073142 2.076018 0.09275383 1.933010 #> lower_50 lower_20 upper_20 upper_50 upper_90 #> -#> 1: 2.190162 2.251441 2.327439 2.390297 2.536828 -#> 2: 2.160845 2.215980 2.283736 2.342490 2.473291 -#> 3: 2.128236 2.177448 2.239422 2.293251 2.412534 -#> 4: 2.093381 2.137557 2.193825 2.242761 2.348207 -#> 5: 2.054260 2.096437 2.145255 2.189826 2.291795 -#> 6: 2.009842 2.050170 2.095696 2.137567 2.233805 +#> 1: 2.194590 2.249226 2.321517 2.389094 2.535033 +#> 2: 2.165231 2.213345 2.278836 2.340448 2.469433 +#> 3: 2.130656 2.177294 2.236996 2.289223 2.408927 +#> 4: 2.093846 2.137319 2.191361 2.238409 2.350976 +#> 5: 2.054041 2.095677 2.145131 2.188372 2.288978 +#> 6: 2.010469 2.050364 2.096276 2.137579 2.233775 ``` Reported cases are returned in a separate data frame in order to streamline the reporting of forecasts and for model evaluation. @@ -190,20 +190,20 @@ Reported cases are returned in a separate data frame in order to streamline the head(summary(estimates, output = "estimated_reported_cases")) #> date type median mean sd lower_90 lower_50 lower_20 #> -#> 1: 2020-02-22 gp_rt 75 76.6790 20.61666 46 63.00 70.0 -#> 2: 2020-02-23 gp_rt 88 90.2305 24.69604 55 73.00 82.0 -#> 3: 2020-02-24 gp_rt 87 89.9430 25.24045 55 72.75 81.0 -#> 4: 2020-02-25 gp_rt 81 82.7225 23.10631 50 66.00 75.0 -#> 5: 2020-02-26 gp_rt 81 82.8090 22.82214 49 67.00 75.0 -#> 6: 2020-02-27 gp_rt 110 112.3805 29.06563 69 92.00 103.6 +#> 1: 2020-02-22 gp_rt 75 76.6065 21.32979 45.00 62 70 +#> 2: 2020-02-23 gp_rt 88 89.4765 23.85403 55.00 73 82 +#> 3: 2020-02-24 gp_rt 88 90.1225 24.67288 54.00 73 82 +#> 4: 2020-02-25 gp_rt 80 82.5340 22.61151 49.95 67 75 +#> 5: 2020-02-26 gp_rt 80 82.4475 22.69676 49.00 66 75 +#> 6: 2020-02-27 gp_rt 109 111.4705 28.76635 69.00 92 103 #> upper_20 upper_50 upper_90 #> -#> 1: 80 89 113.00 -#> 2: 94 105 135.05 -#> 3: 94 104 134.00 -#> 4: 86 96 123.00 -#> 5: 87 97 121.00 -#> 6: 117 130 163.00 +#> 1: 80 90 114 +#> 2: 94 104 132 +#> 3: 94 105 133 +#> 4: 86 95 124 +#> 5: 86 97 123 +#> 6: 116 129 163 ``` A range of plots are returned (with the single summary plot shown below). These plots can also be generated using the following `plot` method. @@ -248,23 +248,23 @@ estimates <- regional_epinow( data = reported_cases, generation_time = gt_opts(example_generation_time), delays = delay_opts(example_incubation_period + reporting_delay), - rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.2), rw = 7), + rt = rt_opts(prior = LogNormal(mean = 2, sd = 0.2), rw = 7), gp = NULL, stan = stan_opts(cores = 4, warmup = 250, samples = 1000) ) -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:25:55] Producing following optional outputs: regions, summary, samples, plots, latest -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:25:55] Reporting estimates using data up to: 2020-04-21 -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:25:55] No target directory specified so returning output -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:25:55] Producing estimates for: testland, realland -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:25:55] Regions excluded: none -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:16] Completed estimates for: testland -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] Completed estimates for: realland -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] Completed regional estimates -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] Regions with estimates: 2 -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] Regions with runtime errors: 0 -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] Producing summary -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:36] No summary directory specified so returning summary output -#> INFO [2024-12-01 00:26:37] No target directory specified so returning timings +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:15] Producing following optional outputs: regions, summary, samples, plots, latest +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:15] Reporting estimates using data up to: 2020-04-21 +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:15] No target directory specified so returning output +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:15] Producing estimates for: testland, realland +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:15] Regions excluded: none +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:15:39] Completed estimates for: testland +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] Completed estimates for: realland +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] Completed regional estimates +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] Regions with estimates: 2 +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] Regions with runtime errors: 0 +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] Producing summary +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:01] No summary directory specified so returning summary output +#> INFO [2024-12-06 15:16:02] No target directory specified so returning timings ``` Results from each region are stored in a `regional` list with across region summary measures and plots stored in a `summary` list. All results can be set to be internally saved by setting the `target_folder` and `summary_dir` arguments. Each region can be estimated in parallel using the `{future}` package (when in most scenarios `cores` should be set to 1). For routine use each MCMC chain can also be run in parallel (with `future` = TRUE) with a time out (`max_execution_time`) allowing for partial results to be returned if a subset of chains is running longer than expected. See the documentation for the `{future}` package for details on nested futures. @@ -280,8 +280,8 @@ knitr::kable(estimates$summary$summarised_results$table) |Region |New infections per day |Expected change in daily reports |Effective reproduction no. |Rate of growth |Doubling/halving time (days) | |:--------|:----------------------|:--------------------------------|:--------------------------|:-----------------------|:----------------------------| -|realland |2110 (999 -- 4398) |Likely decreasing |0.87 (0.6 -- 1.2) |-0.037 (-0.12 -- 0.047) |-19 (15 -- -5.9) | -|testland |2140 (985 -- 4505) |Likely decreasing |0.87 (0.61 -- 1.2) |-0.036 (-0.11 -- 0.052) |-19 (13 -- -6.1) | +|realland |2090 (1075 -- 4374) |Likely decreasing |0.86 (0.63 -- 1.2) |-0.038 (-0.11 -- 0.045) |-18 (15 -- -6.3) | +|testland |2111 (1040 -- 4336) |Likely decreasing |0.86 (0.62 -- 1.2) |-0.038 (-0.11 -- 0.043) |-18 (16 -- -6.2) |