Regresion Lineal con datos posta.ipynb

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 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "id": "2fddd7b8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "using CSV\n",
    "using DataFrames\n",
    "using Plots"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "id": "84158906",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "data = DataFrame(CSV.File(\"land_global_temperature_anomaly-1880-2016.csv\"));"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "id": "76f5a433",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<div class=\"data-frame\"><p>2 rows × 7 columns</p><table class=\"data-frame\"><thead><tr><th></th><th>variable</th><th>mean</th><th>min</th><th>median</th><th>max</th><th>nmissing</th><th>eltype</th></tr><tr><th></th><th title=\"Symbol\">Symbol</th><th title=\"Float64\">Float64</th><th title=\"Real\">Real</th><th title=\"Float64\">Float64</th><th title=\"Real\">Real</th><th title=\"Int64\">Int64</th><th title=\"DataType\">DataType</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>1</th><td>Year</td><td>1948.0</td><td>1880</td><td>1948.0</td><td>2016</td><td>0</td><td>Int64</td></tr><tr><th>2</th><td>Value</td><td>0.0526277</td><td>-0.6</td><td>-0.05</td><td>1.45</td><td>0</td><td>Float64</td></tr></tbody></table></div>"
      ],
      "text/latex": [
       "\\begin{tabular}{r|ccccccc}\n",
       "\t& variable & mean & min & median & max & nmissing & eltype\\\\\n",
       "\t\\hline\n",
       "\t& Symbol & Float64 & Real & Float64 & Real & Int64 & DataType\\\\\n",
       "\t\\hline\n",
       "\t1 & Year & 1948.0 & 1880 & 1948.0 & 2016 & 0 & Int64 \\\\\n",
       "\t2 & Value & 0.0526277 & -0.6 & -0.05 & 1.45 & 0 & Float64 \\\\\n",
       "\\end{tabular}\n"
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       "\u001b[1m Row \u001b[0m│\u001b[1m variable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m mean         \u001b[0m\u001b[1m min    \u001b[0m\u001b[1m median  \u001b[0m\u001b[1m max     \u001b[0m\u001b[1m nmissing \u001b[0m\u001b[1m eltype   \u001b[0m\n",
       "\u001b[1m     \u001b[0m│\u001b[90m Symbol   \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Float64      \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Real   \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Float64 \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Real    \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Int64    \u001b[0m\u001b[90m DataType \u001b[0m\n",
       "─────┼──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────\n",
       "   1 │ Year      1948.0        1880    1948.0   2016            0  Int64\n",
       "   2 │ Value        0.0526277    -0.6    -0.05     1.45         0  Float64"
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     },
     "execution_count": 3,
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     "output_type": "execute_result"
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   ],
   "source": [
    "describe(data)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "id": "e343a3a7",
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<div class=\"data-frame\"><p>137 rows × 2 columns</p><table class=\"data-frame\"><thead><tr><th></th><th>Year</th><th>Value</th></tr><tr><th></th><th title=\"Int64\">Int64</th><th title=\"Float64\">Float64</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><th>1</th><td>1880</td><td>-0.47</td></tr><tr><th>2</th><td>1881</td><td>-0.45</td></tr><tr><th>3</th><td>1882</td><td>-0.41</td></tr><tr><th>4</th><td>1883</td><td>-0.6</td></tr><tr><th>5</th><td>1884</td><td>-0.6</td></tr><tr><th>6</th><td>1885</td><td>-0.52</td></tr><tr><th>7</th><td>1886</td><td>-0.48</td></tr><tr><th>8</th><td>1887</td><td>-0.47</td></tr><tr><th>9</th><td>1888</td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><th>10</th><td>1889</td><td>-0.31</td></tr><tr><th>11</th><td>1890</td><td>-0.49</td></tr><tr><th>12</th><td>1891</td><td>-0.55</td></tr><tr><th>13</th><td>1892</td><td>-0.52</td></tr><tr><th>14</th><td>1893</td><td>-0.56</td></tr><tr><th>15</th><td>1894</td><td>-0.35</td></tr><tr><th>16</th><td>1895</td><td>-0.4</td></tr><tr><th>17</th><td>1896</td><td>-0.27</td></tr><tr><th>18</th><td>1897</td><td>-0.29</td></tr><tr><th>19</th><td>1898</td><td>-0.37</td></tr><tr><th>20</th><td>1899</td><td>-0.18</td></tr><tr><th>21</th><td>1900</td><td>-0.13</td></tr><tr><th>22</th><td>1901</td><td>-0.09</td></tr><tr><th>23</th><td>1902</td><td>-0.33</td></tr><tr><th>24</th><td>1903</td><td>-0.39</td></tr><tr><th>25</th><td>1904</td><td>-0.46</td></tr><tr><th>26</th><td>1905</td><td>-0.42</td></tr><tr><th>27</th><td>1906</td><td>-0.2</td></tr><tr><th>28</th><td>1907</td><td>-0.6</td></tr><tr><th>29</th><td>1908</td><td>-0.49</td></tr><tr><th>30</th><td>1909</td><td>-0.39</td></tr><tr><th>&vellip;</th><td>&vellip;</td><td>&vellip;</td></tr></tbody></table></div>"
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       "\\begin{tabular}{r|cc}\n",
       "\t& Year & Value\\\\\n",
       "\t\\hline\n",
       "\t& Int64 & Float64\\\\\n",
       "\t\\hline\n",
       "\t1 & 1880 & -0.47 \\\\\n",
       "\t2 & 1881 & -0.45 \\\\\n",
       "\t3 & 1882 & -0.41 \\\\\n",
       "\t4 & 1883 & -0.6 \\\\\n",
       "\t5 & 1884 & -0.6 \\\\\n",
       "\t6 & 1885 & -0.52 \\\\\n",
       "\t7 & 1886 & -0.48 \\\\\n",
       "\t8 & 1887 & -0.47 \\\\\n",
       "\t9 & 1888 & -0.46 \\\\\n",
       "\t10 & 1889 & -0.31 \\\\\n",
       "\t11 & 1890 & -0.49 \\\\\n",
       "\t12 & 1891 & -0.55 \\\\\n",
       "\t13 & 1892 & -0.52 \\\\\n",
       "\t14 & 1893 & -0.56 \\\\\n",
       "\t15 & 1894 & -0.35 \\\\\n",
       "\t16 & 1895 & -0.4 \\\\\n",
       "\t17 & 1896 & -0.27 \\\\\n",
       "\t18 & 1897 & -0.29 \\\\\n",
       "\t19 & 1898 & -0.37 \\\\\n",
       "\t20 & 1899 & -0.18 \\\\\n",
       "\t21 & 1900 & -0.13 \\\\\n",
       "\t22 & 1901 & -0.09 \\\\\n",
       "\t23 & 1902 & -0.33 \\\\\n",
       "\t24 & 1903 & -0.39 \\\\\n",
       "\t25 & 1904 & -0.46 \\\\\n",
       "\t26 & 1905 & -0.42 \\\\\n",
       "\t27 & 1906 & -0.2 \\\\\n",
       "\t28 & 1907 & -0.6 \\\\\n",
       "\t29 & 1908 & -0.49 \\\\\n",
       "\t30 & 1909 & -0.39 \\\\\n",
       "\t$\\dots$ & $\\dots$ & $\\dots$ \\\\\n",
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       "\u001b[1m     \u001b[0m│\u001b[90m Int64 \u001b[0m\u001b[90m Float64 \u001b[0m\n",
       "─────┼────────────────\n",
       "   1 │  1880    -0.47\n",
       "   2 │  1881    -0.45\n",
       "   3 │  1882    -0.41\n",
       "   4 │  1883    -0.6\n",
       "   5 │  1884    -0.6\n",
       "   6 │  1885    -0.52\n",
       "   7 │  1886    -0.48\n",
       "   8 │  1887    -0.47\n",
       "   9 │  1888    -0.46\n",
       "  10 │  1889    -0.31\n",
       "  11 │  1890    -0.49\n",
       "  ⋮  │   ⋮       ⋮\n",
       " 128 │  2007     1.1\n",
       " 129 │  2008     0.87\n",
       " 130 │  2009     0.88\n",
       " 131 │  2010     1.09\n",
       " 132 │  2011     0.91\n",
       " 133 │  2012     0.92\n",
       " 134 │  2013     1.01\n",
       " 135 │  2014     1.02\n",
       " 136 │  2015     1.35\n",
       " 137 │  2016     1.45\n",
       "\u001b[36m      116 rows omitted\u001b[0m"
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     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
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   "source": [
    "data"
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   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "id": "420deb26",
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       "  1902.1,657.565 1917.08,697.303 1932.06,876.127 1947.04,816.519 1962.02,750.288 1977.01,538.348 1991.99,816.519 2006.97,597.956 2021.95,412.509 2036.93,518.479 \n",
       "  2051.92,624.449 2066.9,498.61 2081.88,425.755 2096.86,458.871 2111.84,511.856 2126.83,352.901 2141.81,439.002 2156.79,319.785 2171.77,472.117 2186.75,465.494 \n",
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      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 5,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plot(data.Year,data.Value) "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "id": "8e09fd03",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "([1880, 1881, 1882, 1883, 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888, 1889  …  2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016], [-0.47, -0.45, -0.41, -0.6, -0.6, -0.52, -0.48, -0.47, -0.46, -0.31  …  1.1, 0.87, 0.88, 1.09, 0.91, 0.92, 1.01, 1.02, 1.35, 1.45])"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 6,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "año, temperatura = data.Year, data.Value"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "id": "82787efc",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "137-element Vector{Float64}:\n",
       " -0.47\n",
       " -0.45\n",
       " -0.41\n",
       " -0.6\n",
       " -0.6\n",
       " -0.52\n",
       " -0.48\n",
       " -0.47\n",
       " -0.46\n",
       " -0.31\n",
       " -0.49\n",
       " -0.55\n",
       " -0.52\n",
       "  ⋮\n",
       "  1.05\n",
       "  0.92\n",
       "  1.1\n",
       "  0.87\n",
       "  0.88\n",
       "  1.09\n",
       "  0.91\n",
       "  0.92\n",
       "  1.01\n",
       "  1.02\n",
       "  1.35\n",
       "  1.45"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "temperatura"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "id": "f85ee5bb",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Tenemos todos los datos\n",
    "#  ahora tratemos de hacer una regresion usando cuadrados minimos# "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "id": "409b327e",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
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     "execution_count": 9,
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   ],
   "source": [
    "scatter(año,temperatura)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "id": "782ed6b2",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "137"
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     "execution_count": 10,
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   "source": [
    "length(año)"
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  {
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   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2a4a7776",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
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  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "id": "a36b3050",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "2-element Vector{Float64}:\n",
       " -20.148685384654943\n",
       "   0.010370283943470853"
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     "execution_count": 11,
     "metadata": {},
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   "source": [
    "M = [length(año)  sum(año); sum(año)  sum(año .^ 2)]\n",
    "c = [sum(temperatura); sum(año .* temperatura)]\n",
    "\n",
    "βsol = M \\ c"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "id": "0a1a7ec0",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
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      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plot(año,temperatura,label=\"\")\n",
    "plot!(año -> βsol[1] + βsol[2] * año, extrema(año)..., c=:red, lw=2,label=\"Regresion Lineal\",line=:dash)\n",
    "#tittle!(\"\")\n",
    "xlabel!(\"Año\")\n",
    "ylabel!(\"Temperatura anomal sobre la Tierra [°C]\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "062f0954",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
 ],
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