flusightnetwork.html

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<h1>The FluSight Network</h1>
<h3><small class="label">Collaborative, multi-team, ensemble influenza forecasting</small></h3>

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    <h3>Overview</h3>
    <p>
      Since the 2013/2014 influenza season in the US, the CDC has organized <a href="https://predict.cdc.gov/">the FluSight challenge</a>. Teams from around the globe submit weekly forecasts about the current and projected trajectory of the influenza season. The Reich Lab began participating in the FluSight challenge in the 2015/2016 season. In March of 2017, we led the effort to establish the FluSight Network, a consortium of teams participating in the FluSight challenge, with the goal of creating an ensemble that weighted models differently depending on their past performance. Working with teams from <a href="https://delphi.midas.cs.cmu.edu/">Carnegie Mellon</a>, <a href="http://blogs.cuit.columbia.edu/jls106/">Columbia University</a>, <a href="https://www.lanl.gov/expertise/profiles/view/david-osthus">Los Alamos National Laboratory</a>, and, in 2018/2019, Protea Analytics, we developed and implemented the FluSight Network Ensemble Model. This model was the second best overall performing model in the FluSight challenge during the 2017/2018 season. Based on its strong performance in this pilot season, the CDC chose to use the forecasts from this model on its <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html">official FluSight webpage</a> during the 2018/2019 influenza season.
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    <h3>Links</h3>
    <ul>
      <li>
        <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/8/3146">
          Component model comparison paper in <i>PNAS</i>
        </a>
      </li>
      <li>
        <a href="https://doi.org/10.1101/566604">
          Paper evaluating prospective ensemble performance (preprint)
        </a>
      </li>
      <li>
        <a href="http://flusightnetwork.io/">Interactive, real-time forecasts</a>
        </li>
      <li>
        <a href="http://reichlab.io/2017/11/28/flusight-ensemble.html">
          Blog post describing the 2017/2018 ensemble
        </a>
      </li>
      <li>
        <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html">
          Official CDC FluSight website
        </a>
      </li>
      <li>
        <a href="https://github.com/FluSightNetwork/cdc-flusight-ensemble/blob/master/README.md">
          FluSight Network on GitHub
        </a>
      </li>
    </ul>
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