A mental model is a compression of how something works.
Any idea, belief, or concept can be distilled down. Like a map, mental models reveal key information while ignoring irrelevant details.
Models concentrate the world into understandable and useable chunks.
Mental models help us understand the world.
For example, velocity is a mental model that helps you understand that both speed and direction matter.
Reciprocity is a mental model that helps you understand how going positive and going first gets the world to do most of the work for you.
Margin of Safety is a mental model that helps you understand that things don’t always go as planned.
Relativity is a mental model that shows us we have blind spots and how a different perspective can reveal new information.
At the heart of Musk's Knowledge Tree model lies the emphasis on understanding the fundamental principles or the "roots" of a field before branching out into its more complex aspects. Musk advocates for a deep comprehension of basic concepts, as these serve as the foundation upon which more intricate ideas are built.
Using AI to make better judgments
Combining the Eisenhower Decision Matrix with AI can help improve decision-making by identifying important vs. urgent tasks and prioritizing them accordingly. This framework provides a structured approach to evaluate tradeoffs and make better judgments.
| Mental Model Name | Description | When to Apply | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Velocity | Considers both speed and direction | Analyzing movement or progress | Physics textbooks |
| Reciprocity | Going positive and first gets others to reciprocate | Social interactions, negotiations | "Influence" by Robert Cialdini |
| Margin of Safety | Build in extra capacity for unexpected events | Risk management, engineering | "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham |
| Relativity | Perspective changes perception | Analyzing situations from multiple viewpoints | Einstein's theory of relativity |
| Opportunity Cost | The loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one option is chosen | Making decisions between options | Economics textbooks |
| Inversion | Approach a situation from the opposite end | Problem-solving, decision making | "Poor Charlie's Almanack" by Charlie Munger |
| Occam's Razor | The simplest explanation is usually correct | Evaluating competing hypotheses | William of Ockham |
| Second-Order Thinking | Consider the consequences of the consequences | Long-term decision making | "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks |
| Hanlon's Razor | Don't attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity | Interpreting others' actions | Robert J. Hanlon |
| Confirmation Bias | Tendency to search for info that confirms existing beliefs | Evaluating evidence, decision making | "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman |
| Survivorship Bias | Focusing on survivors instead of all participants | Analyzing success and failure | "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff |
| Availability Heuristic | Overestimating likelihood of events we can easily recall | Risk assessment | "Judgment Under Uncertainty" by Kahneman et al. |
| Dunning-Kruger Effect | Unskilled individuals overestimate their abilities | Self-assessment, evaluating others | Kruger and Dunning's research |
| Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule) | 80% of effects come from 20% of causes | Prioritization, resource allocation | Vilfredo Pareto's observations |
| Anchoring | Relying too heavily on initial piece of information | Negotiations, pricing decisions | "Predictably Irrational" by Dan Ariely |
| Loss Aversion | Tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains | Financial decisions, risk assessment | Kahneman and Tversky's research |
| Sunk Cost Fallacy | Continuing a behavior due to previously invested resources | Project management, personal decisions | "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman |
| Cognitive Dissonance | Mental discomfort from conflicting beliefs or behaviors | Personal growth, changing habits | Leon Festinger's theory |
| Framing Effect | How information is presented affects decision-making | Marketing, communication | "Choices, Values, and Frames" by Kahneman & Tversky |
| Fundamental Attribution Error | Overemphasizing personality vs situational factors | Judging others' behavior | Social psychology textbooks |
| Hindsight Bias | Tendency to see past events as predictable | Analyzing historical events, decision-making | "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
| Bandwagon Effect | Adopting beliefs or behaviors to conform with a group | Social dynamics, marketing | "Influence" by Robert Cialdini |
| Dunbar's Number | Cognitive limit to stable social relationships | Social network analysis, team building | Robin Dunbar's research |
| Parkinson's Law | Work expands to fill the time available | Time management, project planning | C. Northcote Parkinson's observations |
| Goodhart's Law | When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure | Performance management, economics | Charles Goodhart's observations |
| Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs | Pyramid of human needs from basic to self-actualization | Psychology, motivation theory | Abraham Maslow's theory |
| Prisoner's Dilemma | Game theory scenario showing conflict between individual and collective interests | Strategy, economics, politics | Game theory textbooks |
| Tragedy of the Commons | Depletion of shared resource by individuals acting in self-interest | Environmental policy, resource management | Garrett Hardin's essay |
| Peter Principle | People rise to their level of incompetence in a hierarchy | Organizational management | Laurence J. Peter's book |
| Butterfly Effect | Small changes can have large consequences in complex systems | Chaos theory, weather prediction | Edward Lorenz's work |
| Black Swan Theory | Impact of rare, unpredictable events | Risk management, finance | "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb |
| Lindy Effect | Life expectancy of non-perishable things is proportional to current age | Technology adoption, cultural trends | Nassim Nicholas Taleb's writings |
| Overton Window | Range of ideas politically acceptable to the mainstream population | Politics, public policy | Joseph P. Overton's concept |
| Broken Windows Theory | Visible signs of disorder lead to more disorder | Urban planning, crime prevention | Wilson and Kelling's theory |
| Dunning-Kruger Effect | Cognitive bias where people with low ability overestimate their competence | Self-assessment, team management | Kruger and Dunning's research |
| Pareidolia | Tendency to perceive meaningful patterns in random stimuli | Pattern recognition, data analysis | Psychological studies on perception |
| Streisand Effect | Attempting to hide information leads to increased publicity | Public relations, information management | Mike Masnick's observation |
| Cobra Effect | Unintended consequences of well-intentioned solutions | Policy making, problem-solving | Horst Siebert's book |
| Pygmalion Effect | Higher expectations lead to improved performance | Education, management | Rosenthal and Jacobson's study |
| Hawthorne Effect | People modify behavior when aware of being observed | Scientific studies, workplace monitoring | Elton Mayo's experiments |
| Gambler's Fallacy | Belief that past events influence future outcomes in random processes | Probability, gambling, risk assessment | Probability theory |
| Halo Effect | Overall impression of a person influences thoughts about their character | Personal judgments, marketing | Edward Thorndike's research |
| Dunbar's Number | Cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships | Social network analysis, organizational design | Robin Dunbar's anthropological studies |
| Parkinson's Law | Work expands to fill the time available for its completion | Time management, project planning | C. Northcote Parkinson's observations |
| Occam's Razor | The simplest explanation is usually the correct one | Problem-solving, scientific reasoning | William of Ockham's principle |
| Hanlon's Razor | Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity | Interpersonal conflicts, organizational issues | Robert J. Hanlon's adage |
| Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs | Theory of human motivation based on a hierarchy of needs | Psychology, marketing, management | Abraham Maslow's theory |
| Pareto Principle (80/20 Rule) | Roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes | Business strategy, time management | Vilfredo Pareto's observations |
| Cognitive Dissonance | Mental discomfort experienced when holding contradictory beliefs | Psychology, behavior change | Leon Festinger's theory |
| Confirmation Bias | Tendency to search for information that confirms prior beliefs | Decision-making, critical thinking | Cognitive psychology research |
| Survivorship Bias | Logical error of concentrating on things that "survived" a selection process | Data analysis, business strategy | Abraham Wald's work |
| Availability Heuristic | Judging probability by the ease with which examples come to mind | Risk assessment, decision-making | Tversky and Kahneman's research |
| Anchoring | Relying too heavily on one piece of information when making decisions | Negotiations, pricing strategies | Tversky and Kahneman's studies |
| Framing Effect | How a choice is presented influences the decision | Marketing, communication | Tversky and Kahneman's work |
| Loss Aversion | People prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains | Economics, marketing | Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory |
| Sunk Cost Fallacy | Continuing a behavior or endeavor due to previously invested resources | Project management, personal decisions | Behavioral economics research |
| Fundamental Attribution Error | Overemphasizing personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others | Social psychology, interpersonal relations | Lee Ross's studies |
| Bandwagon Effect | Tendency to do or believe things because many other people do or believe the same | Marketing, social trends | Social psychology research |
| Dunning-Kruger Effect | Cognitive bias where people with low ability at a task overestimate their ability | Self-assessment, team management | Kruger and Dunning's research |
| Hindsight Bias | Tendency to see past events as predictable | Historical analysis, risk assessment | Cognitive psychology studies |
| Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon | Increased frequency of seeing something after first noticing it | Pattern recognition, cognitive biases | Cognitive psychology research |
| Cognitive Load Theory | Limited working memory capacity affects learning and problem-solving | Education, user interface design | John Sweller's research |
| Curse of Knowledge | Difficulty in imagining what it's like to not know something you know | Communication, teaching | Economics and cognitive science research |
| Decoy Effect | Phenomenon where consumers change preference between two options when presented with a third option | Marketing, pricing strategies | Behavioral economics studies |
| Dunbar's Number | Cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships | Social network analysis, organizational design | Robin Dunbar's anthropological studies |
| Economies of Scale | Cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to their scale of operation | Business strategy, economics | Microeconomics theory |
| Endowment Effect | Tendency to overvalue something simply because you own it | Behavioral economics, negotiations | Richard Thaler's research |
| Feedback Loop | Process in which outputs of a system are routed back as inputs | Systems thinking, control theory | Cybernetics, systems theory |
| Gambler's Fallacy | Erroneous belief that if something happens more frequently than normal, it will happen less frequently in the future | Probability, risk assessment | Probability theory |
| Goodhart's Law | When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure | Performance management, economics | Charles Goodhart's observations |
| Halo Effect | Tendency for positive impression of a person in one area to influence opinion in another area | Marketing, personal judgments | Edward Thorndike's research |
| Hedonic Treadmill | Tendency of humans to quickly return to a relatively stable level of happiness despite major positive or negative events | Psychology, well-being studies | Brickman and Campbell's theory |
| Hyperbolic Discounting | Tendency to choose smaller, immediate rewards over larger, later rewards | Behavioral economics, self-control | Psychological studies on decision-making |
| Imposter Syndrome | Persistent inability to believe one's success is deserved or legitimately achieved | Psychology, professional development | Pauline Clance and Suzanne Imes' research |
| Inattentional Blindness | Failure to notice an unexpected stimulus in plain sight | Cognitive psychology, user experience design | Daniel Simons and Christopher Chabris' studies |
| Information Asymmetry | Situation where one party has more or better information than the other | Economics, contract theory | George Akerlof's research |
| Law of Diminishing Returns | Principle that the marginal benefit of an input decreases as the quantity of the input increases | Economics, productivity analysis | Microeconomics theory |
| Mere Exposure Effect | Tendency to develop a preference for things merely because they are familiar | Psychology, marketing | Robert Zajonc's research |
| Moral Hazard | Lack of incentive to guard against risk where one is protected from its consequences | Economics, insurance | Economic theory |
| Negativity Bias | Tendency to give more weight to negative experiences or information | Psychology, risk assessment | Psychological studies on cognition |
| Network Effect | Phenomenon where increased numbers of people improve the value of a good or service | Economics, technology adoption | Economic theory |
| Opportunity Cost | The loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen | Economics, decision-making | Economic theory |
| Ostrich Effect | Tendency to ignore negative situations | Psychology, financial behavior | Behavioral finance research |
| Overton Window | Range of ideas tolerated in public discourse | Political science, public policy | Joseph P. Overton's concept |
| Paradox of Choice | Phenomenon where too many choices can lead to decision paralysis | Consumer behavior, psychology | Barry Schwartz's research |
| Peak-End Rule | People judge an experience largely based on how they felt at its peak and at its end | Psychology, user experience design | Daniel Kahneman's research |
| Peter Principle | Tendency for employees to rise in a hierarchy until they reach their level of incompetence | Management theory, organizational behavior | Laurence J. Peter's observations |
| Placebo Effect | Beneficial effect produced by a placebo drug or treatment | Medicine, psychology | Medical research |
| Prisoner's Dilemma | Game theory scenario demonstrating why two individuals might not cooperate even if it's in their best interests | Game theory, economics | Merrill Flood and Melvin Dresher's work |
| Prospect Theory | People make decisions based on the potential value of losses and gains rather than the final outcome | Behavioral economics, decision theory | Kahneman and Tversky's research |
| Reciprocity | Social norm of responding to a positive action with another positive action | Social psychology, marketing | Robert Cialdini's research |
| Regression to the Mean | Phenomenon where extreme events are likely to be followed by more moderate ones | Statistics, performance evaluation | Francis Galton's observations |
| Regulatory Capture | When regulatory agencies advance the interests of those they are tasked with regulating | Political science, economics | George Stigler's theory |
| Ringelmann Effect | Tendency for individual members of a group to become increasingly less productive as the size of their group increases | Social psychology, team management | Maximilien Ringelmann's experiments |
| Scarcity | The fundamental economic problem of having seemingly unlimited human wants in a world of limited resources | Economics, marketing | Economic theory |
| Self-Serving Bias | Tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures | Social psychology, performance evaluation | Psychological studies on attribution |
| Semmelweis Reflex | Tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts established norms | Science, innovation adoption | Ignaz Semmelweis' experiences |
| Social Proof | Phenomenon where people assume the actions of others in an attempt to reflect correct behavior | Social psychology, marketing | Robert Cialdini's research |
| Status Quo Bias | Preference for the current state of affairs | Behavioral economics, decision-making | Samuelson and Zeckhauser's research |
| Streisand Effect | Attempt to hide or remove information results in the greater spread of that information | Public relations, information management | Mike Masnick's observation |
| Substitution | Tendency to substitute a difficult question with an easier one | Cognitive psychology, decision-making | Daniel Kahneman's research |
| Sunk Cost Fallacy | Tendency to continue an endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made | Behavioral economics, project management | Arkes and Blumer's studies |
| System Justification | Tendency to defend and bolster the status quo | Social psychology, political science | John Jost's theory |
| Tragedy of the Commons | Situation where individual users, acting independently according to their own self-interest, behave contrary to the common good | Economics, environmental science | Garrett Hardin's essay |
| Tribalism | Strong loyalty to one's own tribe or social group | Social psychology, politics | Anthropological and sociological studies |
| Zeigarnik Effect | Tendency to remember uncompleted or interrupted tasks better than completed ones | Psychology, productivity | Bluma Zeigarnik's research |
This table provides a comprehensive overview of 100 mental models, their descriptions, when to apply them, and references for further reading. These models span various disciplines including psychology, economics, management, and social sciences, offering a diverse toolkit for understanding and navigating complex situations.
Citations: [1] https://fs.blog/mental-models/ [2] https://jamesclear.com/mental-models [3] https://lawsofux.com/mental-model/ [4] https://jamesclear.com/feynman-mental-models [5] https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mental-models-cognitive-overload-playing-chatgpt-stephen-thair [6] https://junto.investments/mental-models/ [7] https://www.sloww.co/super-thinking-book/ [8] https://www.nateliason.com/blog/mental-model-value