European COVID-19 Forecast Hub

We are aggregating forecasts of new cases and deaths due to Covid-19 over the next four weeks in countries across Europe.

Latest forecasts

• View the current forecasts
• We publish a weekly evaluation of current forecasts
• Raw forecast files are in the data-processed folder

README contents

• Quick start
• About Covid-19 forecast hubs
  • European forecast hub team
  • Data license and reuse

Quick start

This is a brief outline for anyone considering contributing a forecast. For a detailed guide on how to structure and submit a forecast, please read the technical wiki.

Set up

Before contributing for the first time: - Read the guide for preparing to submit - Create a team directory - Add your metadata and a license

Evaluating and ensembling

After teams have submitted their forecasts, we create an ensemble forecast. Note that the ensemble only includes the forecasts that completely match the standard format (for example those with all the specified quantiles). See the inclusion criteria for more details.

We also publish some weekly evaluation across forecasting models.

About Covid-19 forecasting hubs

This effort parallels forecasting hubs in the US and Germany. We follow a similar structure and data format, and re-use software provided by the ReichLab.

• The US COVID-19 Forecast Hub is run by the UMass-Amherst Influenza Forecasting Center of Excellence based at the Reich Lab.

• The German and Polish COVID-19 Forecast Hub is run by members of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) and the Computational Statistics Group at Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies.

European forecast hub team

This repository was created by Epiforecasts, supported by grant funding from the European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC). It was based on and supported by members of the US, and German and Polish Forecast Hubs and is now maintained by the ECDC.

Direct contributors to this repository include (in alphabetical order):

• Daniel Wolffram
• Hugo Gruson
• Jannik Deuschel
• Johannes Bracher
• Katharine Sherratt
• Nikos Bosse
• Sebastian Funk

The interactive visualization tool (code available here) has been developed by the Signale Team at Robert Koch Institute:

• Fabian Eckelmann - Knut Perseke - Alexander Ullrich

Data license and reuse

• The forecasts assembled in this repository have been created by independent teams. Most provide a license in their respective subfolder of data-processed.
• Parts of the processing, analysis and validation code have been taken or adapted from the US Covid-19 forecast hub and the Germany/Poland Covid-19 forecast hub both under an MIT license.
• All code contained in this repository is under the MIT license. Please get in touch with us to re-use materials from this repository.

To cite the European Covid-19 Forecast Hub in project in publications, please use the following references:

Methodology and evaluation:

Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandman, F., … & Funk, S. (2022). Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations. medRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.06.16.22276024

Data:

NA

Bibtex

NA