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Harris at the margin

These states had Harris's widest and narrowest margins[^1] of victory—Georgia 0.24% and Michigan 2.83%. Failing to win Georgia again if 11,780 votes were to go to Trump[^2] narrows the possible paths to election for Harris.

Harris wins without Georgia

<img src="/assets/img/maps/no_ga.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">47</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">272</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">266</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">50</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">275</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">263</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">50</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">275</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">263</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">55</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">280</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">258</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">58</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">283</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">255</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">60</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">285</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">253</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI and PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">291</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">247</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">67</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">292</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">246</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">71</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">296</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">242</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, MI, PA and NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">77</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">302</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">236</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

As noted above, however, Harris cannot win without Georgia if he loses Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Harris wins without Michigan

<img src="/assets/img/maps/no_mi.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">270</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">268</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">267</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">49</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">274</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">264</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">51</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">276</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">53</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">278</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">260</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">56</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">281</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">257</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">57</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">282</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">256</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">59</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">284</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">254</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">61</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">286</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">252</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">287</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">251</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">67</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">292</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">246</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">68</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">293</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">245</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">72</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">297</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">241</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, PA, NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">78</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">303</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">235</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<img src="/assets/img/maps/no_ga_mi.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">

Without both Michigan and Georgia, Harris's only winning path requires winning both Pennsylvania and North Carolina unless he wins Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. There is no winning combination if he loses in each of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan.