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And I'm Tom Crosby and this is VOA News now. Massive rallies are taking 
place in Yugoslavia in defiance of the government's call for a second 
round of presidential elections. The majority of the Yugoslav people 
have been supporting the opposition on the general strike to protest 
what its leaders say was a blatant attempt to misrepresent the results 
of the first round of elections a week ago. Most regional analysts 
are predicting that Slobodan Milosevic's days as President of the 
Federal Republic of Yugoslavia are numbered. 'Yugoslavia in transition' 
is the subject of today's Dateline. Here's Judith Latham. Stoyan Serovic, 
a columnist with the Belgrade independent weekly Breme, who is currently 
a Fellow at the US Institute of Peace in Washington says he was as 
astonished as all the other analysts when opposition candidate Vojislav 
Kostunica won on the first ballot against all odds. But in retrospect 
he thinks the political upset in Yugoslavia was perhaps understandable. 
It's just absolute surprise for everybody. All analysts were predicting 
that it was really a huge fraud that Milosevic is going to steal as 
many votes as he needs and that there is no way, you know, to replace 
Milosevic in the elections, which means in a democratic manner. Well, 
it seems that everybody was wrong and Milosevic is going to lose the 
power. He was pretty weak already. Still, he was able to stay in power 
and I think that he just made some miscalculation. He didn't expect 
Kostunica, he didn't expect opposition to unite. Milosevic was lost, 
he could not really steal a million votes, so he was forced to admit 
this defeat and nobody expected that. People thought that, well Milosevic 
can do just about anything. I believe that there is no way out for 
Milosevic but to step down and I believe that's exactly what he is 
going to do in a next few days or weeks. I wouldn't exclude some surprises, 
some attempt to complicate events, to use some force. So they might 
try to use police, maybe even the army, but it seems to me that he 
is losing the backing in the army and police probably as well. So 
I expect that many of his people will probably very soon turn their 
back to Milosevic and I believe it is going to happen very, very soon. 
Stoyan Serovic says a major reason Serbian opposition was able to 
unite behind a single candidate this time as it had not before was 
that another presidential contender, Serbian Renewal Party leader 
Woodgouskovic was outmaneuvered and was rendered ineffectual. What 
Mr. Serovic also called key was the unselfish decision by the leader 
of Serbia's Democratic party Zoran Djindjic to back Mr. Kostunica 
and he adds, outpour the student resistance movement that campaigned 
for the democratic opposition of Serbia and courageously stood up 
to police brutality, gained the respect of Serbian voters. Balkan 
Analyst Overec Kasich, says he felt quite confident that the opposition 
would win in the Yugoslav elections, but he was amazed by the margin 
of victory. So with over a million votes dividing the two, I mean 
that's just astronomical and it was beyond all expectations and in 
speaking with people from Kostunica's campaign staff, they were also 
extremely surprised by those results. How weakened is Mr. Milosevic 
by the outcome? I think that you could see the disarray within his 
own camp. You could see that there is a debate raging in terms of 
what the best strategy is. It's interesting to me that the first evening 
it seemed as if they were pursuing their first strategy, which was 
to try to steal the elections in the first round. And hence the delay 
in reporting? Exactly, but once it became apparent the margin, the 
enormous margin that separated him from Kostunica, then it almost 
became impossible for them to do that. So they had to fall back on 
the secondary strategy and that's what we have now. The only thing 
I would stress is that it's possible that he will change course once 
again and will pursue a third option. What options are realistically 
available to him at this point? One option is to stick this out and 
wait until October 8th and then hold a mockery of an election, in 
which, you know, 20% of the electorate will turn out or less, then 
proclaim victory on that basis. And then basically have a crisis that 
extends indefinitely with him hoping that the opposition will not 
be able to maintain the level of support they have up until this point 
and will not be able to rally as many people into the streets. The 
second option is, if he does not want or cannot use the police to 
disperse these crowds, and he begins to lose support internally, then 
he could seek an option in which he transfers the levels of authority 
to another function. Since the socialists and their leftist allies 
control the federal parliament, he could have himself appointed as 
Prime Minister of the federal government. So it's hard therefore to 
see at this point what he would do. I can tell you that he is known 
for changing course in midstream if he sees that there are obstacles 
in his path. So we can expect just about everything with him. Now 
the opposition is refusing to go to a second round on October 8th. 
Right. How risky is that strategy? And what are the pros and cons 
for Mr. Kostunica for refusing to participate in a runoff election? 
Well, one of the cons is that Milosevic goes ahead and holds this 
election and then you have a confrontation as to who is really the 
legally elected President. The danger for the opposition only comes 
from development that's hard to foresee now that Milosevic can wear 
down the resolve of the opposition. But in order for that to work, 
he definitely cannot resort to violence because that would just harden 
the resolve of the demonstrators and he has to understand that he 
could have the same type of confrontation he has now even following 
the elections, October 8th. And more importantly the second round 
could serve as a trigger for greater demonstrations and perhaps even 
violence. In the days ahead and I'm thinking about the time between 
now and when a runoff might occur if that happens, what should the 
international community do now? I would advise that the international 
leaders, especially from the United States and from NATO countries, 
should maintain a low profile. Every time they get up and make a speech 
in which there is a veiled threat or a direct threat that helps Mr. 
Milosevic because Milosevic wants people afraid that there will either 
be foreign intervention or that there would be the threat of a civil 
war. Right now the spotlight should be on the people of Serbia and 
the opposition leaders. Balkan Analyst, Albert Casetch, is Director 
of Governmental Affairs for ICN Pharmaceuticals. He spoke with us 
from his office in Washington. Greg Shelty, Senior Director for South-East 
European Affairs at the National Security Council says the opposition 
leaders know they've won the first round of elections in Yugoslavia. 
To accept the second round, he believes, would play into Mr. Milosevic's 
strategy of buying time. If they went through a second round, I am 
sure they would do even better, but that wouldn't keep Milosevic's 
Federal Electoral Commission from announcing that he has won. So I 
think it's also a matter of what Milosevic might do between now and 
another set of elections. Milosevic could very easily seek to engineer 
a crisis on the streets in Montenegro, wherever to give him an excuse 
to call-off the elections. This is about whether or not Milosevic 
will allow the will of the Serb people to be expressed, to allow a 
transition to a democratic system. And I think what the opposition 
has decided to do, and I think it's a wise strategy, a fair strategy, 
is to keep the pressure on. They know they've won. Kostunica said 
very clearly in his victory rally that to concede to a second round 
would be somehow acknowledging that the regime could get away with 
cheating. And I think the point he is making is that he is a different 
type of person and we have clear signs that within the police and 
then within the military too, that there is great sympathy for the 
opposition and that there is recognition that the opposition has won. 
And I think it's very significant. For example, the General in charge 
of the Yugoslav army has said that the army will keep out of this 
and I think it's particularly important that the Serb Orthodox Church 
has come out and even recognized Mr. Kostunica as the President. And 
Milosevic must be very worried at this point and this is the most 
serious challenge that's ever been made to his power. Greg Shelty, 
staff member at the National Security Council, spoke with us from 
his office in the White House. 'Yugoslavia in transition' was the 
subject of today's Dateline. I'm Judith Latham.