Add Snow projection datatsets and discoveries

datasets/CMIP-winter-median-pr.data.mdx

@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+---
+id: CMIP-winter-median-pr
+name: 'Projections of changes to winter precipitation '
+description: "CMIP6 projections of changes to winter cumulative precipitation"
+media:
+  src: ::file ./CMIP-winter-median.jpeg
+  alt: Photo of Nisqually glacier
+  author:
+    name: Justin Pflug
+    url: 
+thematics:
+  - eis
+layers:
+  - id: CMIP245-winter-median-pr
+    stacCol: CMIP245-winter-median-pr
+    name: 'Percent-change to winter cumulative precipitation, SSP2-4.5'
+    type: raster
+    description: 'Percent difference in projected winter (January, February, March) cumulative precipitation, relative to a historical timeframe between 1995 and 2014. Outputs represent the median of 23 member ensembles from CMIP6 (SSP 2-4.5) with downscaling performed by NASA Earth Exchange'
+    sourceParams:
+      resampling: bilinear
+      bidx: 1
+      nodata: nan
+      colormap_name: rdbu
+      rescale:
+        - -60
+        - 60
+    compare:
+      datasetId: CMIP-winter-median-pr
+      layerId: CMIP245-winter-median-pr
+      mapLabel: |
+        ::js ({ dateFns, datetime, compareDatetime }) => {
+          return `${dateFns.format(datetime, 'DD LLL yyyy')}`;        
+        }
+    legend:
+      type: gradient
+      label: Precipitation percent-difference
+      min: "-60%"
+      max: "+60%"
+      stops:
+      - "#CA171C"
+      - "#DE6158"
+      - "#F2B089"
+      - "#F5D5C3"
+      - "#F8F8F8"
+      - "#CDE2EF"
+      - "#A0CBE4"
+      - "#5EA4D1"
+      - "#207BBD"
+  - id: CMIP585-winter-median-pr
+    stacCol: CMIP585-winter-median-pr
+    name: 'Percent-change to winter cumulative precipitation, SSP5-8.5'
+    type: raster
+    description: 'Percent difference in projected winter (January, February, March) cumulative precipitation, relative to a historical timeframe between 1995 and 2014. Outputs represent the median of 23 member ensembles from CMIP6 (SSP 5-8.5) with downscaling performed by NASA Earth Exchange'
+    sourceParams:
+      resampling: bilinear
+      bidx: 1
+      nodata: nan
+      colormap_name: rdbu
+      rescale:
+        - -60
+        - 60
+    compare:
+      datasetId: CMIP-winter-median-pr
+      layerId: CMIP585-winter-median-pr
+      mapLabel: |
+        ::js ({ dateFns, datetime, compareDatetime }) => {
+          return `${dateFns.format(datetime, 'DD LLL yyyy')}`;
+        }
+    legend:
+      type: gradient
+      label: Precipitation percent-difference
+      min: "-60%"
+      max: "+60%"
+      stops:
+      - "#CA171C"
+      - "#DE6158"
+      - "#F2B089"
+      - "#F5D5C3"
+      - "#F8F8F8"
+      - "#CDE2EF"
+      - "#A0CBE4"
+      - "#5EA4D1"
+      - "#207BBD"
+---
+<Block>
+<Prose>
+## Overview
+Future changes to precipitation are expected to alter the volume and timing of snow water resources. Here, we present the projected percent-change to Western US cumulative winter precipitation at quarter-degree spatial resoutions across 20-year time periods between 2016 and 2095. Projections are averaged from an ensemble of 23 downscaled climate models from the [CMIP6 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections](https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp-cmip6).
+</Prose>
+</Block>

datasets/CMIP-winter-median-ta.data.mdx

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+---
+id: CMIP-winter-median-ta
+name: 'Projections of changes to winter temperature'
+description: "CMIP6 projections of changes to winter average air temperature"
+media:
+  src: ::file ./CMIP-winter-median.jpeg
+  alt: Photo of Nisqually glacier
+  author:
+    name: Justin Pflug
+    url: 
+thematics:
+  - eis
+layers:
+  - id: CMIP245-winter-median-ta
+    stacCol: CMIP245-winter-median-ta
+    name: 'SSP2-4.5, Change to winter average air temperature'
+    type: raster
+    description: 'Difference in projected winter (January, February, March) average air temperature, relative to a historical timeframe between 1995 and 2014. Outputs represent the median of 23 member ensembles from CMIP6 (SSP 2-4.5) with downscaling performed by NASA Earth Exchange'
+    sourceParams:
+      resampling: bilinear
+      bidx: 1
+      colormap_name: rdbu_r
+      rescale:
+        - -5.5
+        - 5.5
+    compare:
+      datasetId: CMIP-winter-median-ta
+      layerId: CMIP245-winter-median-ta
+      mapLabel: |
+        ::js ({ dateFns, datetime, compareDatetime }) => {
+          return `${dateFns.format(datetime, 'DD LLL yyyy')}`;        
+        }
+    legend:
+      type: gradient
+      label: Air temperature difference [C]
+      min: "-5.5"
+      max: "+5.5"
+      stops:
+      - "#207BBD"
+      - "#5EA4D1"
+      - "#A0CBE4"
+      - "#CDE2EF"
+      - "#F8F8F8"
+      - "#F5D5C3"
+      - "#F2B089"
+      - "#DE6158"
+      - "#CA171C"
+  - id: CMIP585-winter-median-ta
+    stacCol: CMIP585-winter-median-ta
+    name: 'SSP5-8.5, Change to winter average air temperature'
+    type: raster
+    description: 'Difference in projected winter (January, February, March) average air temperature, relative to a historical timeframe between 1995 and 2014. Outputs represent the median of 23 member ensembles from CMIP6 (SSP 5-8.5) with downscaling performed by NASA Earth Exchange'
+    sourceParams:
+      resampling: bilinear
+      bidx: 1
+      colormap_name: rdbu_r
+      rescale:
+        - -5.5
+        - 5.5
+    compare:
+      datasetId: CMIP-winter-median-ta
+      layerId: CMIP585-winter-median-ta
+      mapLabel: |
+        ::js ({ dateFns, datetime, compareDatetime }) => {
+          return `${dateFns.format(datetime, 'DD LLL yyyy')}`;
+        }
+    legend:
+      type: gradient
+      label: Air temperature difference [C]
+      min: "-5.5"
+      max: "+5.5"
+      stops:
+      - "#207BBD"
+      - "#5EA4D1"
+      - "#A0CBE4"
+      - "#CDE2EF"
+      - "#F8F8F8"
+      - "#F5D5C3"
+      - "#F2B089"
+      - "#DE6158"
+      - "#CA171C"
+---
+<Block>
+<Prose>
+## Overview
+Future changes to air temperature are expected to influence the phase of winter precipitation (snowfall or rainfall) and the timing and amount of snowmelt and streamflow. Here, we present the projected percent-change to Western US average winter temperature at quarter-degree spatial resoutions across 20-year time periods between 2016 and 2095. Projections are averaged from an ensemble of 23 downscaled climate models from the [CMIP6 NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections](https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp-cmip6).
+</Prose>
+</Block>

datasets/snow-projections-diff.data.mdx

@@ -22,8 +22,8 @@ layers:
       nodata: nan
       colormap_name: rdbu
       rescale:
-        - -1
-        - 1
+        - -100
+        - 100
     compare:
       datasetId: snow-projections-diff
       layerId: snow-projections-diff-scenario-245
@@ -33,9 +33,9 @@ layers:
         }
     legend:
       type: gradient
-      label: Snow Water Equivalent change [fractional]
-      min: "-1"
-      max: "1"
+      label: Snow Water Equivalent change
+      min: "-100%"
+      max: "+100%"
       stops:
       - "#670220"
       - "#D65F4D"
@@ -54,8 +54,8 @@ layers:
       nodata: nan
       colormap_name: rdbu
       rescale:
-        - -1
-        - 1
+        - -100
+        - 100
     compare:
       datasetId: snow-projections-diff
       layerId: snow-projections-diff-scenario-585
@@ -65,9 +65,9 @@ layers:
         }
     legend:
       type: gradient
-      label: Snow Water Equivalent change [fractional]
-      min: "-1"
-      max: "1"
+      label: Snow Water Equivalent change
+      min: "-100%"
+      max: "+100%"
       stops:
       - "#670220"
       - "#D65F4D"
@@ -79,7 +79,7 @@ layers:
 <Block>
 <Prose>
 ## Overview
-Snow water equivalent (SWE) is defined as the amount of water in the snow. Here, we present the projected fractional change to snow in future periods, relative to the historical period (1995 - 2014). Fractional changes of -1 represent total snow loss. 
+Snow water equivalent (SWE) is defined as the amount of water in the snow. Here, we present the projected percent-change to projected snow in future periods, relative to the historical period (1995 - 2014). 
 </Prose>
 
 </Block>

discoveries/projected-changes-WUS-snow.discoveries.mdx

@@ -0,0 +1,142 @@
+---
+featuredOn:
+  - eis
+id: 'eis-snow-projections'
+name: Future projections of Western US montane snowpack
+description: "Combining NASA climate projections and NASA models to infer the future state of snow water resources in the Rocky Mountains and North Cascades Mountain ranges"
+media:
+  src: ::file ./snow-projections-median.jpg
+  alt: Matterhorn glacier field
+  author:
+    name: Justin Pflug
+    url: 
+pubDate: 2023-02-01
+thematics:
+  - eis
+---
+<Block>
+  <Prose>
+  ## Introduction
+  🚧 This Discovery presents work in progress and not peer-reviewed results! 🚧
+
+  Over half of the annual runoff in the Western United States originates from seasonal snowpack. However, seasonal snowpack is threatened by future changes to climate. The impacts of climate change on snowpack are particularly important in mountainous regions, which behave like “water towers”, storing water in the winter, and releasing water through snowmelt in the spring and summer. In this discovery, we combine [NASA-downscaled climate projections](https://www.nasa.gov/nex/gddp) and [NASA land surface modeling tools](https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/) to investigate how climate change could impact snow water resources (datasets available [here](https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/dashboard/eis/datasets)). We look at five mountainous domains in the Western U.S., and infer how changes to snow water resources could change the availability of wildlife habitat. This research was performed in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, with feedback from the US Fish and Wildlife Service.
+
+  Join the discussion and provide comments on this Discovery at https://github.com/orgs/Earth-Information-System/discussions.
+
+  Authors: Justin Pflug, Sujay Kumar, Ben Livneh, Melissa Wrzesien, Kim Locke
+  </Prose>
+</Block>
+
+<Block>
+  <Prose>
+  ## Climate change projections
+   Climate projections came from the [Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6](https://www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm-cmip/wgcm-cmip6). CMIP6 Projections of air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and radiation were downscaled to finer spatial resolutions by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections ([NEX-GDDP](https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/services/data-collections/land-based-products/nex-gddp-cmip6)). Projections show that most of the Western US average winter air temperature and precipitation are expected to increase by the end of the century (2076 - 2095), relative to the historical timeframe (1995 - 2016).
+  </Prose>
+  <Figure>
+    <Map
+      datasetId='CMIP-winter-median-ta'
+      layerId='CMIP245-winter-median-ta'
+      dateTime='2085-02-14'
+      zoom={4.0}
+      center={[-113.,40.]}
+      compareDateTime='2099-01-01'
+      compareLabel='Slide to see the underlying terrain'
+    />
+    <Caption
+      attrAuthor='NASA'
+      attrUrl='https://nasa.gov/'
+    >
+    Median projected changes to end-of-century winter air temperature from a 23-member ensemble of CMIP6 models (SSP2-4.5).
+</Caption>
+  </Figure>
+</Block>
+<Block>
+  <Figure>
+    <Map
+      datasetId='CMIP-winter-median-pr'
+      layerId='CMIP245-winter-median-pr'
+      dateTime='2085-02-14'
+      zoom={4.0}
+      center={[-113.,40.]}
+      compareDateTime='2099-01-01'
+      compareLabel='Slide to see the underlying terrain'
+    />
+    <Caption
+      attrAuthor='NASA'
+      attrUrl='https://nasa.gov/'
+    >
+    Median projected percent-changes to end-of-century total winter precipitation from a 23-member ensemble of CMIP6 models (SSP2-4.5).
+</Caption>  
+  </Figure>
+</Block>
+
+<Block>
+   <Prose>
+    Average climate change signals were aggregated across 20-year periods at monthly timesteps. This was repeated for 23 different CMIP6 climate models, using two representations of future climate: 1) a “middle of the road” projection with small progressions in environmental sustainability (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP 2-4.5), and 2) a worst-case-scenario fossil-fueled future (SSP 5-8.5). This chart presents the average monthly increases in temperautre and precipitation in the Washington state North Cascades mountain range.
+   </Prose>
+</Block>
+
+<Block type='wide'>
+  <Figure>
+    <Image
+       src={new URL("./aggregated_climateDeltas.jpg", import.meta.url).href}
+       alt="changes to thresholded habitat across elevation bands"
+    />
+    <Caption
+      attrAuthor='NASA'
+      attrUrl='https://nasa.gov/'
+    >
+    Monthly climate change signals in air temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for 20-year periods and two emissions scenarios (colors). Individual climate models are shown by transparent scatter points and ensemble-medians are shown by the bolded scatter points.  
+</Caption>
+  </Figure>
+</Block>
+
+<ScrollytellingBlock>
+  <Chapter
+    center={[-119.70,48.40]}
+    zoom={7.5}
+    datasetId='snow-projections-diff'
+    layerId='snow-projections-diff-scenario-245'
+    datetime='2077-04-01'
+  >
+    ## The Washington Cascades
+    Montane snow in the Pacific Northwest exhibits high sensitivies to climate change. As compared to US mountain ranges in the US interior, this region is at lower elevations and has warmer winter temperatures. This results in a larger portion of precipitation that transitions to rain and earlier snowmelt onset in future climates. By the end of the century, April 1st SWE is projected to largely disappear at elevations of less than 700m, with greater than 50% decreases at elevations less than 1200m. Only at elevations greater than 1400m, accounting for approximately 20% of the domain's total snow volume, is climate change projected to either increase or change snow by less than 10%. However, these increases are largely offset by earlier snowmelt onset and more rapid snowmelt throughout spring.    
+  </Chapter>
+  <Chapter
+    center={[-114.80,47.40]}
+    zoom={6.5}
+    datasetId='snow-projections-diff'
+    layerId='snow-projections-diff-scenario-245'
+    datetime='2077-04-01'
+  >
+    ## Northern Rocky Mountains
+    Although at higher elevations and colder temperatures than the Washington Cascades, average end-of-century snowpack is expected to reduce by 41%, relative to the historical period (1995 - 2014). The largest projected decreases occur in Northern Idaho and Northwest Montana. Some portions of Northern Montana near Glacier National Park could have temperatures that are sufficiently cold enough to sustain snowfall with future warming and increases in precipitation, resulting in small increases in April 1 snow volume in those regions.   
+  </Chapter>
+  <Chapter
+    center={[-108.90,40.70]}
+    zoom={5.5}
+    datasetId='snow-projections-diff'
+    layerId='snow-projections-diff-scenario-245'
+    datetime='2077-04-01'
+  >
+    ## Central and Southern Rocky Mountains
+    Although end-of-century winter temperatures in this region are projected to increase by approximately 3 degrees Celsius (emissions scenario SSP2-4.5), winter temperatures may be sufficiently cold enough to sustain snowfall at high elevations. This could result in high-elevation increases in Apri snowpack, particularly in the cold Wyoming Rockies. However, projections often disagree on whether high-elevation winter snow will increase or decrease, and high elevation increases are not large enough to offset lower-elevation decreases in snow volume, resulting in average winter snow losses of approximately 21%.   
+  </Chapter>
+</ScrollytellingBlock> 
+<Block>
+   <Figure>
+     <Image 
+       src={new URL("./habitat_spaghettiPlots.jpg", import.meta.url).href}
+       alt="changes to thresholded habitat across elevation bands" 
+      />
+   </Figure>
+   <Prose>
+   The snow projections developed here can be used for multiple applications. For example, wolverine habitat assessments performed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service suggested that snowy regions were more likely to support denning if mid-spring (e.g., May 15) snow depth exceeded 0.5m. Using these projections, we could identify the percent-change to the amount of area that had snow depth exceeding the spring snow depth threshold for different elevation bands. The plots shown here show the changes across elevation bands for the four future periods (emissions scenario SSP2-4.5), for three domains, accounting for both the ensemble mean (line) and spread (shaded) across 23 different climate models. Note that although some of the colder domains like the Colorado Rockies and Montana Rockies had high-elevation increases to end-of-century projected snow, the prevelence of area exceeding this habitat threshold only decreased for all elevation bands in the last simulation period (2076 - 2095).
+   </Prose>
+</Block>  
+
+<Block type='wide'>
+  <Prose>
+  The data presented in this discovery includes model results generated using [NASA-downscaled climate projections](https://www.nasa.gov/nex/gddp) and [NASA modeling tools](https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/). Additional model outputs can be accessed in the VEDA datasets pages, ensemble-median [snow projections](https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/dashboard/eis/datasets/snow-projections-median) and [projected percent-changes to snow water equivalent](https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/dashboard/eis/datasets/snow-projections-diff). The data presented is preliminary, and not yet peer-reviewed. Users are encouraged to contact the project authors for inquiries about this data.
+  </Prose>
+</Block>