Add chart back

commit 1f29d66ed5998b603784fefd6cee8cb63a186070 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Sun Apr 21 18:38:13 2019 -0700 Update Chart.min.js to 2.8.0 commit 8f2586ee9da7cfea7969f1f1fb46e63c45bdee05 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Fri Apr 12 04:12:33 2019 -0700 Almost works but doesn’t commit d8d160da7a99e34a6c209447edab1f8d70409d33 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Fri Apr 12 03:13:07 2019 -0700 Programmatically update to dark commit a5f47764263d3bdab0833fd2d5e0b5515306a0bf Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Fri Apr 12 02:52:47 2019 -0700 Semi-dynamic colors now commit fafc7efaa028a0606b1c99184b5fa018503c454b Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Fri Apr 12 02:25:29 2019 -0700 Add elements.point.*Color… commit 67935635c7490616c3cfb54189c5414808649735 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Fri Apr 12 00:56:24 2019 -0700 Get chart working perfectly enough in dark mode commit cd1e3524cd710748a3b24d5355a8d13f7a8c8c25 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Thu Apr 11 22:58:58 2019 -0700 Has confidences, but way too many of them commit 25e6ebcf73860114a5a3278739159f44af9d46ef Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Thu Apr 11 22:29:45 2019 -0700 analyze.go: Reorder structs commit 922299deb1f4725bf42e7bea6021034bcd333599 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Thu Apr 11 21:30:35 2019 -0700 Add line of perfect calibration commit fb448cf7be8c30b7270fe8a48aaf85dc3da96e24 Author: Nathan Galt <[email protected]> Date: Thu Apr 11 12:55:11 2019 -0700 Use scatterplot, get all axes back
adiabatic · Apr 25, 2019 · ab210cf · ab210cf
1 parent b47afa9
commit ab210cf
Show file tree

Hide file tree

Showing 7 changed files with 251 additions and 82 deletions.
diff --git a/Chart.min.js b/Chart.min.js
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ go get github.com/davecgh/go-spew/spew
 go get github.com/stretchr/testify
 go get -u github.com/spf13/cobra/cobra
 go get -u gopkg.in/russross/blackfriday.v2
+go get github.com/xtgo/set
 ```
 
 ## Prior art

diff --git a/analyze/analyze.go b/analyze/analyze.go
@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ type Analysis struct {
 	EverythingByConfidence []AnalyzedDocuments
 }
 
+// An AnalyzedDocuments contains both an AnalysisUnit and a slice of PredictionDocument.
+type AnalyzedDocuments struct {
+	AnalysisUnit AnalysisUnit
+	Documents    []streams.PredictionDocument
+}
+
 // AnalysisUnit provides information on a subset of an Analysis.
 type AnalysisUnit struct {
 	Title              string
@@ -47,12 +53,6 @@ type AnalysisUnit struct {
 	Unscorable int // lacks claim, lacks confidence, or both
 }
 
-// An AnalyzedDocuments contains both an AnalysisUnit and a slice of PredictionDocument.
-type AnalyzedDocuments struct {
-	AnalysisUnit AnalysisUnit
-	Documents    []streams.PredictionDocument
-}
-
 // Total returns the sum of the scored items, the unscored items, and the unscorable items.
 func (au *AnalysisUnit) Total() int { return au.Scored() + au.Unscored() + au.Unscorable }
 
@@ -135,6 +135,26 @@ func (au *AnalysisUnit) BrierScore() float64 {
 	return sum / float64(len(au.SquaredDifferences))
 }
 
+// Confidence returns the confidence level of an AnalyzedDocuments if they all have the same confidence level, or nil otherwise.
+func (ads *AnalyzedDocuments) Confidence() *float64 {
+	const ε = 0.0001
+	var ret *float64
+	for _, d := range ads.Documents {
+		if d.Confidence != nil {
+			if ret == nil {
+				ret = d.Confidence
+			} else {
+				if math.Abs(*ret-*d.Confidence) > ε {
+					// preexisting saved value is too different from current value, so this bunch must be confidence-ly heterogenous
+					return nil
+				}
+			}
+
+		}
+	}
+	return ret
+}
+
 // Analyze calculates Brier scores for the given streams.
 func Analyze(sts []streams.Stream) Analysis {
 	ret := Analysis{}
@@ -157,6 +177,13 @@ func Analyze(sts []streams.Stream) Analysis {
 		ret.EverythingByKey = append(ret.EverythingByKey, ds)
 	}
 
+	confidencesUsed := streams.ConfidencesUsed(sts)
+	for _, confidence := range confidencesUsed {
+		ds := Only(sts, streams.MatchingConfidence(confidence))
+		ds.AnalysisUnit.Title = fmt.Sprintf("At the %.0f%% confidence level", confidence)
+		ret.EverythingByConfidence = append(ret.EverythingByConfidence, ds)
+	}
+
 	return ret
 }
 

diff --git a/formatters/html.go b/formatters/html.go
@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ import (
 	"html/template"
 	"io"
 	"io/ioutil"
+	"os"
 	"strings"
 
 	"github.com/adiabatic/predictions/analyze"
@@ -33,7 +34,23 @@ type payload struct {
 	Streams   []streams.Stream
 	Analysis  analyze.Analysis
 
-	ChartJS template.JS
+	ChartJS     template.JS
+	PerfectData []Point
+	GuessData   []Point
+}
+
+// A Point struct contains an x and y point. Used for Chart.js.
+type Point struct {
+	X float64 `json:"x"`
+	Y float64 `json:"y"`
+}
+
+// MarshalJSON suppresses excess precision in float64’s default marshaling behavior.
+//
+// Do you want to see tooltips for points on a chart that say (0.7000000000000001, 0.7000000000000001)? Me neither.
+func (p Point) MarshalJSON() ([]byte, error) {
+	s := fmt.Sprintf(`{"x":%.2f, "y":%.2f}`, p.X, p.Y)
+	return []byte(s), nil
 }
 
 func documentResult(d streams.PredictionDocument) (class, message string) {
@@ -122,6 +139,9 @@ func HTMLFromStreams(w io.Writer, sts []streams.Stream) error {
 
 	p.Analysis = analyze.Analyze(sts)
 
+	addPerfectData(&p)
+	addGuessData(&p)
+
 	t := template.Must(template.New("template").Funcs(funcs).ParseFiles("template.html"))
 	return t.Execute(w, p)
 }
@@ -148,3 +168,37 @@ func combineTitleAndScope(title, scope string) string {
 	}
 	return r
 }
+
+func addPerfectData(pp *payload) {
+	numbers := make([]float64, 0)
+
+	var num float64
+	for ; num <= 1.03; num += 0.05 {
+		numbers = append(numbers, num)
+	}
+	numbers[0] = 0.01              // 0 is a bad idea
+	numbers[len(numbers)-1] = 0.99 // 1 is a bad idea
+
+	for _, n := range numbers {
+		p := Point{n, n}
+		pp.PerfectData = append(pp.PerfectData, p)
+	}
+}
+
+func addGuessData(pp *payload) {
+	confidenceGroupings := pp.Analysis.EverythingByConfidence
+	for _, grouping := range confidenceGroupings {
+		conf := grouping.Confidence()
+		if conf == nil {
+			fmt.Fprintln(os.Stderr, "Odd. I didn’t expect a nil confidence in addGuessData().")
+			continue
+		}
+
+		p := Point{
+			*conf / 100,
+			grouping.AnalysisUnit.OfTotalCalled() / 100,
+		}
+
+		pp.GuessData = append(pp.GuessData, p)
+	}
+}
diff --git a/streams/filters.go b/streams/filters.go
@@ -14,6 +14,8 @@
 
 package streams
 
+import "math"
+
 // A Filter removes predictions from consideration if the predicate returns false.
 type Filter func(PredictionDocument) bool
 
@@ -46,6 +48,18 @@ func MatchingKey(key string) Filter {
 	}
 }
 
+// MatchingConfidence returns a Filter that returns true if the prediction’s confidence level matches (to within a fudge factor) the given confidence level.
+func MatchingConfidence(conf float64) Filter {
+	const ε = 0.0001
+	return func(d PredictionDocument) bool {
+		if d.Confidence != nil && math.Abs(*d.Confidence-conf) < ε {
+			return true
+		}
+
+		return false
+	}
+}
+
 // DocumentsMatching returns PredictionDocuments from streams that pass the given Filter.
 func DocumentsMatching(sts []Stream, f Filter) []PredictionDocument {
 	ret := make([]PredictionDocument, 0)

diff --git a/streams/streams.go b/streams/streams.go
@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import (
 	"os"
 
 	"github.com/pkg/errors"
+	"github.com/xtgo/set"
 	yaml "gopkg.in/yaml.v2"
 )
 
@@ -323,3 +324,16 @@ func KeysUsed(sts []Stream) []string {
 	return deduplicateStrings(ret)
 
 }
+
+// ConfidencesUsed returns a list of all confidence intervals used in the given Streams.
+func ConfidencesUsed(sts []Stream) []float64 {
+	ret := make([]float64, 0)
+	for _, s := range sts {
+		for _, pred := range s.Predictions {
+			if !pred.ShouldExclude() {
+				ret = append(ret, *pred.Confidence)
+			}
+		}
+	}
+	return set.Float64s(ret)
+}