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content/posts/2024-algorithmic-trading-deeper-dive/index.md
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title: Algorithmic Trading - Deeper technical dive for Dark Pool swimmers. | ||
description: Quant and Algorithmic trading concepts, black box and ethics, musings on morals and true usefulness of derivatives - not even mentioning Futures markets | ||
author: Adi Rabinovich | ||
type: post | ||
heroStyle: "background" | ||
showTableOfContents: true | ||
draft: true | ||
date: 2024-07-11T11:11:11+00:00 | ||
url: /2024/algorithmic-trading-deeper-dive/ | ||
tags: | ||
- Markets | ||
- Economics | ||
- Quants | ||
- AI | ||
- Derivatives | ||
- Options | ||
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--- | ||
## TLDR | ||
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This is deeper dive - if you need introduction to the topic, [check out first post in this series](/2024/swimming-in-the-dark-pools-quants-ai-trading/). | ||
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## Technical Analysis - Gaps, Tea-Cups, The Whole Darn Party! | ||
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## Artificial Intelligence Knows All (Digital Twins Syndrome) | ||
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Monitoring endless inputs is expensive. And how good are our digital twins now? The concept popularized by nVidia but explored under many names much earlier, by our entire industry (research more on the origin of 'digital twin' expression) | ||
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And a lot of it depends on our goals - is it Dividend, is it Growth, how much growth/dividend? | ||
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## Ethics of *Market Liquidity* | ||
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When sh*t hits the fan, all automated systems stop buying also... So where is the liquidity? | ||
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## KISS Principle (Keep it Simple _Silly_) | ||
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This topic is huge, technical charting is super popular and not fully automated as far as I know. AI analysis of many sources. More Advanced post is coming - to dive deeper into those issues for those interested. | ||
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## Notes | ||
Derivatives in general - are they useful after collapse of 2007/2008? And what about Futures? or Commodities trading? | ||
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https://www.bbc.com/news/explainers-51265169 | ||
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## OLD SAMPLE | ||
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I don't claim to have all the answers, these are hard problems that will take time to solve. For starters it is important that we understand our limitations when making decisions based on data. Last thing Netflix wants is disgruntled consumers - some get so emotionally invested that they may swear-off Netflix from young age! | ||
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1. Focus on continuously improving data collection, with real-world testing to confirm accuracy. All analysis is only as good as the input data it gets! | ||
2. Don't be afraid of creative approaches to confirm assumptions. Actually ask in the app - would you like to remove this show from Continue Watching because you didn't like it? | ||
3. Discovery is still a huge problem - find ways to show trailers even to non-Ads consumers. Offer bigger banners for new releases with some teasers. Be creative here - and ensure all analysis of popularity takes into account how "discoverable" and "promoted" this new content was in the first place! And why not have Netflix's own annual Awards show for original content - cheap enough to produce and viewers can quickly get a taste of "What's new and good" on the platform? | ||
4. People get invested into seeing stories to conclusion - this is both Useful for content producers and a possible trap. One solution for expensive productions is to make a single-story movie (perhaps with underlying hints for a bigger "conspiracy"), and if successful make additional movies in the same Universe/Series. | ||
5. Consider the cost from the get-go - I am sure productions get green-light based on some sort of statistical analysis for how many subscribers like similar content and thus potential viewers. But how accurate is this - if director isn't the same, or actors differ, it can have huge impact on seemingly similar script. And what about Potential subscribers - surely Netflix needs to entice people who look at the catalog today and say "nothing interesting for me here"... | ||
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In a recent Interview for Bloomberg, Netflix new co-CEOs made a bold statement that "[they never cancel a successful show](https://www.forbes.com/sites/paultassi/2023/01/24/netflix-says-it-has-never-cancelled-a-successful-show/)". This statement quickly catapulted to the top of the news by itself, simply because most of Netflix subscribers vehemently disagree with it! In | ||
![Netflix Viewers In Pain](people_crying_for_netflix_cancellations.png) | ||
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## Some related links to explore | ||
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- [Netflix Shows Cancelled in 2022](https://variety.com/lists/netflix-shows-canceled-2022/) | ||
- [Interview with Netflix new Co-CEOs - a window into their thinking](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-01-21/netflix-ceo-reed-hastings-steps-down-interview-with-greg-peters-ted-sarandos) | ||
- [Netflix push into video games](https://www.theverge.com/22772589/netflix-video-games-app-news-updates) - I plan to blog in the future on this Exciting effort | ||
- [How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer](https://www.amazon.com/How-We-Decide-Jonah-Lehrer/dp/0547247990?tag=craftonia-20) | ||
- [Predictably Irrational](https://www.amazon.com/Predictably-Irrational-Revised-Expanded-Decisions/dp/0061353248?tag=craftonia-20) - Expanded edition of the classic | ||
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{{< alert "image" >}} | ||
**Images By DALL-E 3 from Microsoft Bing** | ||
{{< /alert >}} |
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