Date: 10/2/2017
Description:
Scrapes NFL results from pro-football-reference and calculates ELO ratings for each team for the 2017-2018 season
Initializes the ELO ratings for the year using https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/
My ELO lines up fairly closely with 538's ELO. The biggest difference at the moment, I believe, is that I don't account for if a team is playing at home or away.
For information on what ELO is : http://www.eloratings.net/system.html https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-nfl-elo-ratings/
Sample output of program on 10/4/2017:
team wins losses Current ELO
Kansas City Chiefs 4 0 1681
New England Patriots 2 2 1657
Atlanta Falcons 3 1 1631
Pittsburgh Steelers 3 1 1612
Green Bay Packers 3 1 1604
Denver Broncos 3 1 1582
Detroit Lions 3 1 1559
Seattle Seahawks 2 2 1558
Dallas Cowboys 2 2 1556
Buffalo Bills 3 1 1541
Philadelphia Eagles 3 1 1535
Carolina Panthers 3 1 1534
New Orleans Saints 2 2 1525
Oakland Raiders 2 2 1517
Washington Redskins 2 2 1515
Minnesota Vikings 2 2 1510
Houston Texans 2 2 1508
Arizona Cardinals 2 2 1501
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 1 1500
Cincinnati Bengals 1 3 1478
Baltimore Ravens 2 2 1465
New York Giants 0 4 1463
Los Angeles Rams 3 1 1455
New York Jets 2 2 1454
Miami Dolphins 1 2 1450
Tennessee Titans 2 2 1450
Indianapolis Colts 1 3 1435
Jacksonville Jaguars 2 2 1433
Los Angeles Chargers 0 4 1407
Chicago Bears 1 3 1370
San Francisco 49ers 0 4 1319
Cleveland Browns 0 4 1292
PREDICTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK (WEEK 5):
week team1 team2 team1_win_prob predicted_winner
5 New England Patriots Tampa Bay Buccaneers 71.17% New England Patriots
5 San Francisco 49ers Indianapolis Colts 33.90% Indianapolis Colts
5 New York Jets Cleveland Browns 71.76% New York Jets
5 Arizona Cardinals Philadelphia Eagles 45.12% Philadelphia Eagles
5 Tennessee Titans Miami Dolphins 50.00% Miami Dolphins
5 Jacksonville Jaguars Pittsburgh Steelers 26.30% Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Buffalo Bills Cincinnati Bengals 58.97% Buffalo Bills
5 Los Angeles Chargers New York Giants 42.01% New York Giants
5 Carolina Panthers Detroit Lions 46.41% Detroit Lions
5 Baltimore Ravens Oakland Raiders 42.57% Oakland Raiders
5 Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Rams 64.40% Seattle Seahawks
5 Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys 56.86% Green Bay Packers
5 Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans 73.02% Kansas City Chiefs
5 Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears 69.12% Minnesota Vikings