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New source for calculating fuel extraction emission factors #1955

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merged 3 commits into from
Jan 29, 2025

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gabriel-abrahao
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@gabriel-abrahao gabriel-abrahao commented Jan 21, 2025

Purpose of this PR

Introduces an option to use updated values to calculate CH4 emission factors from fossil fuel extraction activities. This is controlled by a new flag:

*' cm_emifacs_baseyear "base year for deriving nonCO2 emission factors"
*' (2005): Uses EDGAR data with 2005 as base year
*' (2020): Uses CEDS2024 data with 2020 as base year
$setGlobal cm_emifacs_baseyear  2005          !! def = 2005

Previous state:
FF extraction EFs are calculated from EDGAR 2005 baseline emissions and REMIND's own 2005 activity levels, see presolve.gms:66. CH4 emissions from fuel extraction are read from p_emiFossilFuelExtr.cs4r , which is generated by running calcEmiFossilFuelExtr.

Update:
The default is still unchanged. But setting cm_emifacs_baseyear to 2020 calibrates the emission factor that that year's REMIND activity levels and CEDS emission data instead.

This PR is part of what's needed to address https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/442. As other changes will be introduced to nonCO2 emissions, I believe it's best to only fully switch over to the updated implementations after the other changes are introduced, and validate them as one.

Type of change

  • New feature
  • Minor change (default scenarios show only small differences)

Checklist:

  • My code follows the coding etiquette
  • I performed a self-review of my own code
  • I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
  • I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
  • I adjusted the reporting in remind2 where it was needed
  • I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
  • All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)
  • The changelog CHANGELOG.md has been updated correctly

Further information (optional):

  • Test runs are here:
/p/projects/piam/abrahao/scratch/updatenonco2/remind/output/SSP2-NPi2025-CEDS2020_2025-01-15_15.06.44
/p/projects/piam/abrahao/scratch/updatenonco2/remind/output/SSP2-NPi2025-EDGAR2005_2025-01-15_15.06.31

PkBudg scenarios had INFES, but they seem unrelated and were experienced by others around the same time, so I believe this PR is not causing them.

  • Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

Overall, the derived emission factors lead to lower FF CH4 emissions than before. The ratios between fuels also change, but except for USA, all regions end up with lower emissions after mid-century in NPi.

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@gabriel-abrahao
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gabriel-abrahao commented Jan 28, 2025

@LaviniaBaumstark @nicobauer can one of you take a look and approve? I already have another PR to submit that depends on this one

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ p_adj_deltacapoffset.cs4r
p_boundCapCCSindicator.cs4r
p_boundEmi.cs4r
p_emiFossilFuelExtr.cs4r
p_emiFossilFuelExtr2020.cs4r
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are those data already in the current input data?

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They are in Laurin's latest /p/projects/rd3mod/inputdata/output_1.27/rev7.22eb-after_2b1450bc_remind.tgz at least

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I've been increasing a minor version of mrremind every time I create a new file like this, is that the right procedure?

@gabriel-abrahao gabriel-abrahao merged commit 8b43464 into remindmodel:develop Jan 29, 2025
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2 participants